Predicting market direction with hidden Markov models

• Author(s): Silva, Artur Pedro Antunes da
• Date: 2015
• Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/15373
• Origin: Repositório Institucional da UNL
• Subject(s): Hidden Markov models; Speech recognition; Trading sStrategy
• Document Type: Master thesis
• Language: English
• Advisor(s): Lameira, Pedro
• Contributor(s): RUN

Description

This paper develops the model of Bicego, Grosso, and Otranto (2008) and applies Hidden Markov Models to predict market direction. The paper draws an analogy between financial markets and speech recognition, seeking inspiration from the latter to solve common issues in quantitative investing. Whereas previous works focus mostly on very complex modifications of the original hidden markov model algorithm, the current paper provides an innovative methodology by drawing inspiration from thoroughly tested, yet simple, speech recognition methodologies. By grouping returns into sequences, Hidden Markov Models can then predict market direction the same way they are used to identify phonemes in speech recognition. The model proves highly successful in identifying market direction but fails to consistently identify whether a trend is in place. All in all, the current paper seeks to bridge the gap between speech recognition and quantitative finance and, even though the model is not fully successful, several refinements are suggested and the room for improvement is significant.

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