The Temporal Trends of Mortality Due to Tuberculosis in Brazil: Tracing the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic’s Effect Through a Bayesian Approach and Unmasking Disparities

• Author(s): Tavares, Reginaldo ; Gomes, Dulce ; Berra, Thaís Zamboni ; Alves, Yan ; Ramos, Antônio ; Popolin, Marcela ; Abade, André ; Zini, Natália ; Tártaro, Ariela ; Alves, Josilene ; Costa, Fernanda ; Pelodan, Maria ; Vigato, Beatriz ; Pinheiro, Daniele ; Paiva, Juliana ; Souza, Clara ; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre
• Date: 2025
• Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/10174/39559
• Origin: Repositório Científico da Universidade de Évora
• Subject(s): Tuberculosis; COVID-19; Temporal Time Series Trends; Bayesian Structural Time Series
• Document Type: Journal article
• Language: English

Description

An ecological study of TB deaths recorded in the Mortality Information System (SIM) from 2012 to 2022 was conducted. Trends and percentage changes in the mortality were estimated. A Bayesian Structural Time Series model combined with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was used to assess the pandemic’s effect on TB.