Elections, configurations and cleavages: comment on the results of the 1995 elections

• Author(s): Aguiar, Joaquim
• Date: 2000
• Origin: Análise Social
• Subject(s): resultados eleitorais; comportamentos do eleitorado; abstenção; Portugal; 1975-1995; results of the elections; behaviour of the electorate; abstention; Portugal; 1975-1995
• Document Type: Journal article
• Language: Portuguese

Description

An analysis of elections may be restricted to its utilitarian sense of identifying who wins or it may go further and interpret the attitudes of the electorate and fluctuations of the electorate between different elections. The type of interpretation adopted in this article is the latter, with the idea of incorporating the behaviour of the electorate in a long-term interpretation of the political dynamics in Portugal between 1975 and 1995. It enables us to identify highly accentuated fluctuations in the electorate, showing that it is an active protagonist in the country's political evolution in conjugation with institutional articulation and, in particular, with the role of the President of the Republic in anticipating elections. The critical factor of this electoral behaviour is, however, abstention as a sign of the electorate's saturation in relation to its previous choice, which justifies the conclusion that elections are lost before they can be won.

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A análise das eleições deve ser alargada até à interpretação das atitudes do eleitorado e respectivas ondas de flutuação entre várias eleições. Este artigo pretende enquadrar os comportamentos do eleitorado numa interpretação de longo prazo da dinâmica política em Portugal entre 1975 e 1995. O factor crítico dos comportamentos eleitorais é a abstenção como sinal de saturação em relação à escolha anterior, o que fundamenta a conclusão de que as eleições são perdidas antes de poderem ser ganhas.