Author(s): Pedro, Nuno ; Fernandez, Paulo ; Bugalho, Lourdes
Date: 2024
Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.11/9259
Origin: Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco
Subject(s): Burned area; Climate; Fire occurrence; FWI system; Wildfires
The aim of this study was to design an approach for establishing a plausible relationship between FWI and the monthly average burned area (ABA) and the average number of ignitions (ANI) supported by geographic information systems (GIS). The application of these results will allow the projection of burned areas in forest fires in the future, making mitigation actions possible. This approach was applied to the region of Central Portugal, and to achieve the aims of the study, the following steps were completed: (1) geoprocessing the spatial data of the daily FWI indices, burned area and number of fire ignitions and (2) developing statistical regression models capable of reproducing the variability in burned area and ignition occurrence series from FWI data during the 2001–2017 period. The predicted equations for the burned area as a function of the FWI presented high coefficients of determination for most of the considered periods, thus allowing the projection, with a high degree of confidence, of the monthly burned area values according to the various future climate scenarios. The prediction of the average number of ignitions from the FWI values class proved to be effective for establishing highly adjusted forecast models for July and August. In the spatial analysis at the district level, the ABA and ANI estimation equations were obtained from the FWI values with determination coefficients above 0.90 for most of the districts. Significant differences were observed between the districts in the number of ignitions analysed.
