Author(s): Gruda, Dritjon ; Gonçalves, Ricardo ; Zadegan, Milad Sharafi
Date: 2026
Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/55654
Origin: Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Subject(s): Accidents; Layoffs; Psychological state; Traffic
Economic downturns are typically associated with fewer traffic accidents due to reduced driving. However, the psychological and social shocks of sudden job loss may counterintuitively increase risk on the road. In this paper, we examine whether mass layoffs announcements are associated with short-term increases in traffic fatalities in the United States using spatial autoregressive models. Merging monthly U.S. county-level data on mass layoffs with motor vehicle fatality counts, we find a significant uptick in monthly traffic fatalities following major layoff events. This pattern persists after accounting for seasonal trends and regional factors, including unemployment rates and weather conditions. These findings suggest that the stress and disruption caused by mass layoffs can have deadly consequences beyond the workplace. We discuss psychological mechanisms (e.g., distress-related driving impairment) and implications linked to short-term rises in traffic fatalities and public health implications for fatal crash risk.
