Author(s): Alves, André ; Marques Da Costa, Nuno
Date: 2024
Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/96829
Origin: Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
Subject(s): Public transport; Mobility patterns; Fuel price; Transport geography; Russian-Ukrainian war; Google community; Mobility reports
Rising fuel prices are known to affect public transport (PT) demand. However, the impact of the oil market inflation and subsequent energy crisis following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on mobility behaviour in Europe has received little attention. This study examines shifts in fuel prices and PT mobility across 25 European Union coun-tries between February and May 2022. Weekly variations in PT mobility were correlated with diesel and gasoline prices, and a multiple linear regression was conducted to assess the influence of contextual factors in explaining vari-ations in PT usage. The results indicate a significant increase in PT mobility across all countries after February 2022, which was positively associated with rising fuel prices. Approximately 84% of the variance in mobility was explained, with more pronounced increases observed in countries characterised by lower telecommuting prevalence, higher housing costs relative to household income, greater price differentials between gasoline and diesel, lower adoption of alternative fuels, and higher motorisation rates. These findings suggest that the surge in fuel prices, driven by the 2022 energy crisis, may have stimulated an increase in transit ridership.
