Author(s): Gutiérrez, Eliécer E. ; Heming, Neander M. ; Penido, Gabriel ; Dalponte, Julio C. ; Lacerda, Ana Cristyna Reis ; Moratelli, Ricardo ; Bubadué, Jamile de Moura ; da Silva, Leonardo Henrique [UNESP] ; Wolf, Mariana M. ; Marinho-Filho, Jader
Date: 2019
Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/11449/188024
Origin: Oasisbr
Subject(s): Brazil; Carnivora; Cerrado; Climatic suitability; Distribution
Made available in DSpace on 2019-10-06T15:54:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2019-09-01
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
We aimed to assess the potential impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of areas holding suitable climatic conditions for the presence of Lycalopex vetulus, and to discuss the implications of such distribution for the conservation of the species. We employed correlative modeling analyses to infer the geographic distribution of climatically suitable conditions for the species on climatic scenarios for the present and for years 2050 (average for 2041–2060) and 2070 (average for 2061–2080). The data consisted of species occurrences and 5 bioclimatic variables containing interpolated and averaged information on seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation. Models were projected onto climatic scenarios employing three different global circulation models and two representative concentration pathways. For each of these scenarios, we quantified the expected changes in area (km2) holding suitable climatic conditions and how much of that area is expected to be within the current Brazilian system of protected areas. Our results reveal that climate change represents a major threat for the survival of L. vetulus by drastically reducing its habitat availability in a period of time no longer than five decades from now. Experimental physiological and behavioral studies are necessary to assess whether L. vetulus is able to adequately tolerate under climatic conditions different to those under which the species is currently present.
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biodiversidade Animal Centro de Ciências Naturais e Exatas, Av. Roraima n. 1000, Prédio 17, sala 1140- D, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Zoologia Departamento de Zoologia Universidade de Brasília
Programa de Pós-Graduação Ecologia e Conservação da Biodiversidade Departamento de Ciências Biológicas Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz Laboratório de Ecologia Aplicada à Conservação Rodovia Ilhéus-Itabuna, km16 / Salobrinho
Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso Instituto de Ciências Naturais Humanas e Sociais Campus de Sinop Avenida Alexandre Ferronato, 1200, Setor Industrial
Fiocruz Mata Atlântica Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, CEP 22713-375
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biodiversidade e Biologia Evolutiva Instituto de Biologia Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Departamento de Ecologia Instituto de Biociências Universidade estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho” UNESP
Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas (IPÊ)
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Av. Roraima n. 1000, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
Departamento de Ecologia Instituto de Biociências Universidade estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho” UNESP
CNPq: 430214/2018-9
