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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Royal Society Te Aparangi Rutherford Discovery Fellowship
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
Background: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change-especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields-can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease.
Sao Paulo State Univ UNESP, Inst Biosci, Dept Ecol, BR-13506900 Rio Claro, Brazil
Massey Univ, Hopkirk Res Inst, Mol Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Lab, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North 4474, New Zealand
Univ Sao Paulo, Ribeirao Preto Med Sch, Ctr Virol Res, Av Bandeirantes 3900, BR-14049900 Ribeirao Preto, Brazil
Vitalant Res Inst, 270 Masonic Ave, San Francisco, CA 94118 USA
Univ Calif San Francisco, Dept Lab Med, 270 Masonic Ave, San Francisco, CA 94118 USA
Univ Sao Paulo, Biosci Inst, Dept Ecol, BR-05508900 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
Inst Chico Mendes Conservacao ICMBio, Carnivoros CENAP, Ctr Nacl Pesquisa & Conservacao Mamiferos, Estr Municipal Hisaichi Takebayashi, BR-12952011 Atibaia, Brazil
Inst Procarnivoros, Av Horacio Neto 1030,Parque Edmundo Zanoni, BR-12945010 Atibaia, Brazil
Fed Univ Mato Grosso UFMT, Dept Bot & Ecol, BR-78060900 Cuiaba, Brazil
Univ Fed Uberlandia, Fac Med, Dept Saude Colet, Ave Para 1720,Campus Umuarama, BR-38405320 Uberlandia, MG, Brazil
Univ Estadual Santa Cruz, Dept Ciencias Biol, BR-45662900 Ilheus, BA, Brazil
Sao Paulo State Univ UNESP, Inst Biosci, Dept Ecol, BR-13506900 Rio Claro, Brazil
CAPES: 33004137
FAPESP: 2015/17739-4
FAPESP: 2017/21816-0
FAPESP: 2016/02568-2
FAPESP: 2013/25441-0
FAPESP: 2017/11666-0
FAPESP: 2013/50421-2
Royal Society Te Aparangi Rutherford Discovery Fellowship: RDF-MAU1701
CNPq: 312045/2013-1
CNPq: 312292/2016-3
CAPES: 88881.068425/2014-01
