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ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores

Author(s): Marcolino, Milena S. ; Pires, Magda C. ; Ramos, Lucas Emanuel F. ; Silva, Rafael T. ; Oliveira, Luana M. ; Carvalho, Rafael L.R. ; Mourato, Rodolfo Lucas S. ; Sánchez-Montalvá, Adrián ; Raventós, Berta ; Anschau, Fernando ; Chatkin, José Miguel ; Nogueira, Matheus C.A. ; Guimarães-Júnior, Milton H. ; Vietta, Giovanna G. ; Duani, Helena ; Ponce, Daniela [UNESP] ; Ziegelmann, Patricia K. ; Castro, Luís C. ; Ruschel, Karen B. ; Cimini, Christiane C.R. ; Francisco, Saionara C. ; Floriani, Maiara A. ; Nascimento, Guilherme F. ; Farace, Bárbara L. ; Monteiro, Luanna S. ; Souza-Silva, Maira V.R. ; Sales, Thais L.S. ; Martins, Karina Paula M.P. ; Borges do Nascimento, Israel J. ; Fereguetti, Tatiani O. ; Ferrara, Daniel T.M.O. ; Botoni, Fernando A. ; Etges, Ana Paula B.S. ; Schwarzbold, Alexandre V. ; Maurílio, Amanda O. ; Scotton, Ana Luiza B.A. ; Weber, André P. ; Costa, André S.M. ; Glaeser, Andressa B. ; Madureira, Angélica Aparecida C. ; Bhering, Angelinda R. ; de Castro, Bruno Mateus ; da Silva, Carla Thais C.A. ; Ramos, Carolina M. ; Gomes, Caroline D. ; de Carvalho, Cíntia A. ; Silveira, Daniel V. ; Cezar, Edilson ; Pereira, Elayne C. ; Kroger, Emanuele Marianne S. ; Vallt, Felipe B. ; Lucas, Fernanda B. ; Aranha, Fernando G. ; Bartolazzi, Frederico ; Crestani, Gabriela P. ; Bastos, Gisele A.N. ; Madeira, Glícia Cristina de C. ; Noal, Helena Carolina ; Vianna, Heloisa R. ; Guimarães, Henrique C. ; Gomes, Isabela M. ; Molina, Israel ; Batista, Joanna d'Arc L. ; de Alvarenga, Joice C. ; Guimarães, Júlia D.S.S. ; de Morais, Júlia D.P. ; Rugolo, Juliana M. [UNESP] ; Pontes, Karen Cristina J.R. ; dos Santos, Kauane Aline M. ; de Oliveira, Leonardo S. ; Pinheiro, Lílian S. ; Pacheco, Liliane S. ; Sousa, Lucas de D. ; Couto, Luciana S.F. ; Kopittke, Luciane ; de Moura, Luis Cesar S. ; Santos, Luisa Elem A. ; Cabral, Máderson A.S. ; Souza, Maíra D. ; Tofani, Marcela G.T. ; Carneiro, Marcelo ; Ferreira, Maria Angélica P. ; Bicalho, Maria Aparecida C. ; Lima, Maria Clara P.B. ; Godoy, Mariana F. ; Cardoso, Marilia M.A. [UNESP] ; Figueiredo, Meire P. ; Sampaio, Natália C.S. ; Rangel, Natália L. ; Crespo, Natália T. ; de Oliveira, Neimy R. ; Assaf, Pedro L. ; Martelli, Petrônio José de L. ; Almeida, Rafaela S.C. ; Martins, Raphael C. ; Lutkmeier, Raquel ; Valacio, Reginaldo Aparecido ; Finger, Renan G. ; Cardoso, Ricardo B. ; Pozza, Roberta ; Campos, Roberta X. ; Menezes, Rochele M. ; de Abreu, Roger M. ; Silva, Rufino de F. ; Guimarães, Silvana M.M. ; Araújo, Silvia F. ; Pereira, Susany Anastácia ; Oliveira, Talita F. ; Kurtz, Tatiana ; de Oliveira, Thainara C. ; Araújo, Thaíza Simônia M.A. ; Diniz, Thulio Henrique O. ; dos Santos, Veridiana B. ; Gomes, Virginia Mara R. ; do Vale, Vitor Augusto L. ; Ramires, Yuri C. ; Boersma, Eric ; Polanczyk, Carisi A.

Date: 2022

Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/11449/229327

Origin: Oasisbr

Subject(s): COVID-19; Hospitalizations; Mortality; Prognosis; Risk factors; SARS-CoV-2; Score


Description

Made available in DSpace on 2022-04-29T08:31:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2021-09-01

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Objectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March–July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August–September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. Results: Median (25–75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48–72) years, and in-hospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829–0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833–0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870–0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.

Department of Internal Medicine Medical School Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Telehealth Center University Hospital Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Institute for Health Technology Assessment IATS/ CNPq)., Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2359. Prédio 21 | Sala 507

Department of Statistics Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Center for Research and Graduate Studies in Business Administration Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei

Infectious Diseases Department Vall d'Hebron University Hospita Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição and Hospital Cristo Redentor Grupo Hospitalar Conceição

Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul RGS)

Hospital São Lucas PUCRS

Rede Mater Dei de Saúde

Hospital Márcio Cunha

Universidade do Sul de Santa Catarina UNISUL

Dissertare Scientific Advice

SOS Cardio Hospital

Internal Medicine Department University Hospital Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho

Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul

Hospital Bruno Born

Research Center of Vale do Taquari.

Hospital Mãe de Deus

Hospital Universitário de Canoas

Mucuri Medical School FAMMUC Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri – UFVJM

Hospital Santa Rosalia

Hospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de Castro

Hospital Moinhos de Vento

Hospital Unimed BH

Hospital Risoleta Tolentino Neves

Post-graduation Center Medical School Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Hospital Metropolitano Odilon Behrens

Hospital Eduardo de Menezes

Universidade FUMEC

Hospital Julia Kubitschek

Hospital Universitário de Santa Maria

Departamento de Medicina Interna Universidade Federal de Santa Maria

Hospital São João de Deus

Hospital Regional Antônio Dias

Faculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais

Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul

Faculdade de Ciências Humanas de Curvelo

Hospital João XXIII Av. Professor Alfredo Balena

Hospital Santo Antônio

Hospital Universitário Ciências Médicas

Vall d'Hebron University Hospital PROSICS Barcelona

Instituto René Rachou-FIOCRUZ Minas.

Universidade Federal da Fronteira Sul

Hospital Regional do Oeste

Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais

Hospital Tacchini

Centro Universitário de Patos de Minas. RPatos de Minas

Hospital Semper

Hospital Santa Cruz

Universidade de Santa Cruz

Fundação Hospitalar do Estado de Minas Gerais – FHEMIG.

Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto

Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Pernambuco

Universidade Federal de Pernambuco Centro de Ciências Médicas

Centro Universitário de Belo Horizonte UniBH)

Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam Department of Cardiology

Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho

Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu

Document Type Journal article
Language English
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