Author(s): De Oliveira, Evaldo Araújo ; De Barros, Vicente Pereira ; Kraenkel, Roberto André [UNESP]
Date: 2014
Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/11449/72616
Origin: Oasisbr
Subject(s): Bayes rule; Bayesian approaches; Likelihood functions; Logistic maps; Logistic models; Markov map; Population growth; Population sizes; Prior distribution; Single species; Bayesian networks; Dynamics; Population statistics
Submitted by Vitor Silverio Rodrigues (vitorsrodrigues@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2014-05-27T11:25:58Z No. of bitstreams: 0
Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-27T11:25:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2011-08-30
We introduce a new method to improve Markov maps by means of a Bayesian approach. The method starts from an initial map model, wherefrom a likelihood function is defined which is regulated by a temperature-like parameter. Then, the new constraints are added by the use of Bayes rule in the prior distribution. We applied the method to the logistic map of population growth of a single species. We show that the population size is limited for all ranges of parameters, allowing thus to overcome difficulties in interpretation of the concept of carrying capacity known as the Levins paradox. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
Instituto de Matemática e Estatística Universidade de São Paulo, R. do Mato 1010, 05508-090 São Paulo
Instituto Federal de Educação Ciência e Tecnologia de São Paulo, Av. João Olímpio de Oliveira 1561, 18202-000, Itapetininga
Instituto de Física Teórica Universidade Estadual Paulista, R. Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271, 01140-070, São Paulo
Instituto de Física Teórica Universidade Estadual Paulista, R. Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271, 01140-070, São Paulo
