Author(s):
Bellerba, Federica ; Bardeck, Nils ; Boehm, Michael ; D'Ecclesiis, Oriana ; Raimondi, Sara ; Tomezzoli, Elisa ; Miranda, Mafalda Silva ; Alves, Inês Martins ; Alves, Daniela ; Abecasis, Ana ; Gabellone, Valeria ; Gabrielli, Elisa ; Vaglio, Giulia ; Shamsara, Elham ; Pfeifer, Nico ; Mommo, Chiara ; Incardona, Francesca ; Kaiser, Rolf ; Gandini, Sara
Date: 2024
Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/172725
Origin: Repositório Institucional da UNL
Subject(s): Difference-in-differences; Interrupted time series; Reproduction number; SARS-CoV-2; Schools; Microbiology (medical); Infectious Diseases; SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
Description
Funding Information: This research received contributions from the EuCARE Project funded by the European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Program under Grant Agreement No 101046016. Funding Information: This research received contributions from the EuCARE Project funded by the European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Program under Grant Agreement No 101046016. Federica Bellerba is a PhD student at the European School of Molecular Medicine (SEMM), Milan, Italy. We would like to sincerely thank Maria Pia Fabiani for checking and proofreading the English language of the manuscript, contributing to its overall quality and readability. We thank Iuri Fanti for his contribution to the data management of the EuCARE school studies. We also wish to extend our gratitude to Maurizio Rainisio for his invaluable methodological input and insightful points of reflection that have significantly enhanced the quality of this study. FB, FI and SG contributed to the conceptualisation of the study. FB and SG contributed to the data analysis, interpretation of the results, writing, and reviewing of the manuscript. ODE, SR, ET, and FI contributed to the interpretation of the results, writing, and reviewing of the manuscript. NB, MB, MSM, IMA, DA, AA, and RK contributed to data collection, supervision, and reviewing of the manuscript. ES and NP contributed to the interpretation of the results and reviewing of the methodology and the manuscript. FI contributed to the funding acquisition. VG, EG, GV, and CM contributed to the data management, supervision, and reviewing of the manuscript. FI and CM contributed to the project administration. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors
Objectives: We investigated the impact of school reopening on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Italy, Germany, and Portugal in autumn 2022 when the Omicron variant was prevalent. Methods: A prospective international study was conducted using the case reproduction number (Rc) calculated with the time parametrization of Omicron. For Germany and Italy, staggered difference-in-differences analysis was employed to explore the causal relationship between school reopening and Rc changes, accounting for varying reopening dates. In Portugal, interrupted time series analysis was used due to simultaneous school reopenings. Multivariable models were adopted to adjust for confounders. Results: In Italy and Germany, post-reopening Rc estimates were significantly lower compared to those from regions/states that had not yet reopened at the same time points, both in the student population (overall average treatment effect for the treated subpopulation [O-ATT]: -0.80 [95% CI: -0.94;-0.66] for Italy; O-ATT-0.30 [95% CI: -0.36;-0.23] for Germany) and the adult population (O-ATT: -0.04 [95% CI: -0.07;-0.01] for Italy; O-ATT: -0.07 [95% CI: -0.11;-0.03] for Germany). In Portugal, there was a significant decreasing trend in Rc following school reopenings compared to the pre-reopening period (sustained effect: -0.03 [95% CI: -0.04; -0.03] in students; -0.02 [95% CI: -0.03; -0.02] in adults). Conclusions: We found no evidence of a causal relationship between school reopenings in autumn 2022 and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
