Autor(es):
Yang, Daewon ; Hashizume, Masahiro ; Tobías, Aurelio ; Honda, Yasushi ; Roye, Dominic ; Oh, Jaemin ; Dang, Tran Ngoc ; Kim, Yoonhee ; Abrutzky, Rosana ; Guo, Yuming ; Tong, Shilu ; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio ; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento ; Lavigne, Eric ; Correa, Patricia Matus ; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés ; Osorio, Samuel ; Kyselý, Jan ; Urban, Aleš ; Orru, Hans ; Indermitte, Ene ; Jaakkola, Jouni ; Ryti, Niilo ; Pascal, Mathilde ; Huber, Veronika ; Schneider, Alexandra ; Katsouyanni, Klea ; Analitis, Antonis ; Entezari, Alireza ; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh ; Goodman, Patrick ; Zeka, Ariana ; Michelozzi, Paola ; de’Donato, Francesca ; Alahmad, Barrak ; Diaz, Magali Hurtado ; Valencia, César De la Cruz ; Overcenco, Ala ; Houthuijs, Danny ; Ameling, Caroline ; Rao, Shilpa ; Nunes, Baltazar ; Madureira, Joana ; Holo-Bâc, Iulian Horia ; Scovronick, Noah ; Acquaotta, Fiorella ; Kim, Ho ; Lee, Whanhee ; Íñiguez, Carmen ; Forsberg, Bertil ; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria ; Ragettli, Martina S. ; Guo, Yue Liang Leon ; Pan, Shih Chun ; Li, Shanshan ; Sera, Francesco ; Zanobetti, Antonella ; Schwartz, Joel ; Armstrong, Ben ; Gasparrini, Antonio ; Chung, Yeonseung
Data: 2024
Identificador Persistente: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/174435
Origem: Repositório Institucional da UNL
Assunto(s): Climate change; Heterogeneity; Human adaptation; Minimum mortality temperature; Temporal change; Epidemiology; Global and Planetary Change; Pollution; Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health; Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis; SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being; SDG 13 - Climate Action
Descrição
Funding Information: D.Y. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-2022M3J6A1084843). Y.C. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant funded by the Korea Government (MSIT) (No. 2022M3J6A1063021). A.T. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24K13527. Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan. M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) as part of SICORP (grant number JPMJSC20E4). A.G. was supported by the Medical Research Council, UK (MR/R013349/1 and MR/V034162/1) and the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). A.S. was supported by the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). J.M. was supported by an FCT grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.
Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.
