Document details

Treasury bond returns and U.S. political cycles

Author(s): Freixa, Carlos Miguel Silva

Date: 2009

Persistent ID:

Origin: Repositório Institucional da UNL

Subject(s): Treasury bond returns; Political cycles; Political economy


This work-project complements the existing studies on the linkage between financial investments returns and the political cycles, by relating Treasury bond returns and Presidential cycles. Previous research shows that stock market tends to behave better during Democratic presidencies, and in this work it is shown a compatible result, with long-term Treasury bonds having higher absolute, and excess returns during Republican Administrations. This difference is not explained by business cycles and there are no significant differences in risk, as measured by the volatility of returns, between the two political cycles. Empirical evidence is also found showing that there are better economic and financial conditions to invest in T-bonds' markets during Republican than during Democratic Administrations.

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Document Type Master thesis
Language English
Advisor(s) Matos, João Amaro de
Contributor(s) Freixa, Carlos Miguel Silva
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