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Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990...

GBD 2021 Adult BMI; Ng, Marie; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Lo, Justin; Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Nasir; Abbasian, Mohammadreza

Background Overweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future trajectories to 2050. Methods Leveraging established methodology from the Glob...


Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestone...

GBD 2021 Tuberculosis Collaborators; Ledesma, Jorge R.; Ma, Jianing; Zhang, Meixin; Basting, Ann V.L.; Chu, Huong Thi; Vongpradith, Avina

Background: Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2...


Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and...

GBD 2021 Risk Factors Collaborators; Brauer, Michael; Roth, Gregory A.; Aravkin, Aleksandr Y.; Zheng, Peng; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attr...


Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a for...

GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators; Vollset, Stein Emil; Ababneh, Hazim S.; Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the...


Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to...

GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators; Bhattacharjee, Natalia V.; Schumacher, Austin E.; Aali, Amirali; Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis

Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour...


Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990-2019: an u...

Momtazmanesh, Sara; Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi; Ghamari, Seyyed-Hadi; Rad, Elaheh Malakan; Rezaei, Negar; Shobeiri, Parnian; Aali, Amirali

Background Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods Using...


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