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Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A mult...

Yang, Daewon; Hashizume, Masahiro; Tobías, Aurelio; Honda, Yasushi; Roye, Dominic; Oh, Jaemin; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Kim, Yoonhee; Abrutzky, Rosana

Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality a...


Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature

Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Sera, Francesco; Lavigne, Eric; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš

Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled ...


Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis

Alahmad, Barrak; Khraishah, Haitham; Kamineni, Meghana; Royé, Dominic; Papatheodorou, Stefania I.; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Guo, Yuming; Lavigne, Eric

Background: Extreme temperatures contribute significantly to global mortality. While previous studies on temperature and stroke-specific outcomes presented conflicting results, these studies were predominantly limited to single-city or single-country analyses. Their findings are difficult to synthesize due to variations in methodologies and exposure definitions. Methods: Within the Multi-Country Multi-City Netw...


Temporal variations in the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on cardi...

Schwarz, Maximilian; Peters, Annette; Stafoggia, Massimo; de'Donato, Francesca; Sera, Francesco; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yuming; Honda, Yasushi

Background: Ambient air pollution, including particulate matter (such as PM10 and PM2·5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), has been linked to increases in mortality. Whether populations' vulnerability to these pollutants has changed over time is unclear, and studies on this topic do not include multicountry analysis. We evaluated whether changes in exposure to air pollutants were associated with changes in mortality ...


All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone...

Chen, Gongbo; Guo, Yuming; Yue, Xu; Xu, Rongbin; Yu,Wenhua; Ye, Tingting; Tong, Shilu; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bell,Michelle L.; Armstrong, Ben

Background: Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O3 exposure with mortality globally. Methods: We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis. From the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, data on daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory dea...


Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of cl...

Domingo, Nina G.G.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Kinney, Patrick L.; Jiang, Leiwen; Gasparrini, Antonio; Breitner, Susanne; Lavigne, Eric

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mort...


Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different...

Chen, Kai; de Schrijver, Evan; Sivaraj, Sidharth; Sera, Francesco; Scovronick, Noah; Jiang, Leiwen; Roye, Dominic; Lavigne, Eric; Kyselý, Jan

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; amon...


Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells ...

Gao, Yuan; Huang, Wenzhong; Zhao, Qi; Ryti, Niilo; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Pascal, Mathilde; Urban, Aleš; Zeka, Ariana

Background: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. Methods: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related morta...


Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries

Stafoggia, Massimo; Michelozzi, Paola; Schneider, Alexandra; Armstrong, Ben; Scortichini, Matteo; Rai, Masna; Achilleos, Souzana; Alahmad, Barrak

Background: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. Objectives: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), n...


Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: Effect modification by air pollution ...

Rai, Masna; Stafoggia, Massimo; de'Donato, Francesca; Scortichini, Matteo; Zafeiratou, Sofia; Vazquez Fernandez, Liliana; Zhang, Siqi; Katsouyanni, Klea

Highlights: - Heat effect modification by air pollution on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was investigated across 482 cities.- Heat effect was seen to be significantly modified by air pollutants PM10, PM2.5, O3, and NO2. -This study is the most extensive research to date investigating the heat effect modification on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. - This is the first-ever study to deeply inv...


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