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Uncertainties in Plant Species Niche Modeling under Climate Change Scenarios

Passos, Isabel; Figueiredo, Albano; Almeida, Alice Maria; Ribeiro, Maria Margarida

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to forecast the impact of climate change on species’ potential distribution, with results that might support decisions for conservation and biodiversity management. Despite their vulnerability to parameterization and data quality input, SDM use has been increasing in the last decades. In fact, inappropriate inputs and the lack of awareness about the effects of m...


Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean...

Almeida, Alice Maria; Ribeiro, Maria Margarida; Ferreira, Miguel R.; Roque, Natália; Quintela-Sabarís, Celestino; Fernandez, Paulo

Climate change’s huge impact on Mediterranean species’ habitat suitability and spatial and temporal distribution in the coming decades is expected. The present work aimed to reconstruct rockrose (Cistus ladanifer L.) historical and future spatial distribution, a typically Mediterranean species with abundant occurrence in North Africa, Iberian Peninsula, and Southern France. The R ensemble modeling approach was ...


Multitemporal land use and cover analysis coupled with climatic change scenario...

Almeida, Alice Maria; Delgado, Fernanda; Roque, Natália; Ribeiro, Maria Margarida; Fernandez, Paulo

Climate change and land use and land cover (LULC) change are impacting the species’ geographic distribution, causing range shifts and reducing suitable habitats. Asphodelus bento-rainhae subsp. bento-rainhae (AbR) is an endangered endemic plant restricted to Serra da Gardunha (Portugal), and knowledge of those changes will help to design conservation measures. MaxEnt was used to model AbR’s current distribution...


Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for...

Almeida, Alice Maria; Martins, Maria João; Campagnolo, Manuel Lameiras; Fernandez, Paulo; Albuquerque, Teresa; Gerassis, Saki; Gonçalves, José Carlos

Climate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-d...


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