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Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A mult...

Yang, Daewon; Hashizume, Masahiro; Tobías, Aurelio; Honda, Yasushi; Roye, Dominic; Oh, Jaemin; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Kim, Yoonhee; Abrutzky, Rosana

Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality a...


Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature

Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Sera, Francesco; Lavigne, Eric; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš

Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled ...


Temporal variations in the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on cardi...

Schwarz, Maximilian; Peters, Annette; Stafoggia, Massimo; de'Donato, Francesca; Sera, Francesco; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yuming; Honda, Yasushi

Background: Ambient air pollution, including particulate matter (such as PM10 and PM2·5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), has been linked to increases in mortality. Whether populations' vulnerability to these pollutants has changed over time is unclear, and studies on this topic do not include multicountry analysis. We evaluated whether changes in exposure to air pollutants were associated with changes in mortality ...


Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different...

Chen, Kai; de Schrijver, Evan; Sivaraj, Sidharth; Sera, Francesco; Scovronick, Noah; Jiang, Leiwen; Roye, Dominic; Lavigne, Eric; Kyselý, Jan

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; amon...


Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells ...

Gao, Yuan; Huang, Wenzhong; Zhao, Qi; Ryti, Niilo; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Pascal, Mathilde; Urban, Aleš; Zeka, Ariana

Background: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. Methods: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related morta...


Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries

Stafoggia, Massimo; Michelozzi, Paola; Schneider, Alexandra; Armstrong, Ben; Scortichini, Matteo; Rai, Masna; Achilleos, Souzana; Alahmad, Barrak

Background: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. Objectives: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), n...


Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study ...

Masselot, Pierre; Mistry, Malcolm; Vanoli, Jacopo; Schneider, Rochelle; Iungman, Tamara; Garcia-Leon, David; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Feyen, Luc; Orru, Hans

Background: Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and a...


Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe

Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Li, Shanshan; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza

Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We used l...


Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling tempera...

Mistry, Malcolm N.; Schneider, Rochelle; Masselot, Pierre; Royé, Dominic; Armstrong, Ben; Kyselý, Jan; Orru, Hans; Sera, Francesco; Tong, Shilu

Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health r...


Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality:...

Choi, Hayon Michelle; Lee, Whanhee; Roye, Dominic; Heo, Seulkee; Urban, Aleš; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zanobetti, Antonella

Background: Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortality relationship among different greenspace levels in a global s...


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