24 documents found, page 1 of 3

A Monetary Analysis of the Liquidity Trap

Human capital and labour market resilience over time: a regional perspective of...

This paper examines the influence of human capital on labour market resilience in the seven Portuguese NUTS-2 over the period 1995-2018. We define resilience as the ability of regional employment to recover from a shock to output over the business cycle. We use the Local Projection (LP) methodology applied to a SVAR model with three variables - employment, human capital, real GDP - and the output gap as the swi...

Inequality and growth in Portugal: a reappraisal for the period 1986-2017

This paper investigates the inequality-growth nexus for Portugal over the period 1986-2017. Portugal is a country that has recorded a decelerating growth trajectory together with high levels of inequality, coupled with relatively low levels of human capital and productivity. We compute different measures of earnings inequality using microdata from the Quadros de Pessoal database and use them to estimate VAR and...

Human Capital and Labour Market Resilience: A Regional Analysis for Portugal

This paper investigates labour market resilience for seven Portuguese NUTS-2 regions over the period 1995-2018 detailing its relationship with levels of education and highlighting the period following the 2007-08 financial and economic crisis. We define resilience as the ability of regional employment to recover from a recessionary shock over an entire business cycle. Our results point to the existence of labou...

Health Investment and Long run Macroeconomic Performance:a quantile regression ...

Are PIIGS so different? An empirical analysis of demand and supply shocks

This paper analyses responses to supply and demand shocks in PIIGS countries. We compare the results obtained for PIIGS with those of Germany and the USA, and also with those of France, which despite its government’s efforts demonstrate relatively poor recent economic performance. The main objective of this paper is to establish whether it is still reasonable to consider PIIGS as a group apart. Our methodologic...

Exchange Rate Mean Reversion within a Target Zone: Evidence from a Country on t...

The aim of this study is to assess to what extent the Portuguese participation in the European Monetary System (EMS) has been characterized by mean reverting behaviour, as predicted by the exchange rate target zone model developed by Krugman (1991). For this purpose, a new class of mean reversion tests is introduced. The empirical analysis of mean reversion in the Portuguese exchange rate shows that most of the...

The PIGS, does the Group Exist? An empirical macroeconomic analysis based on th...

Will the current crisis accelerate the PIGS collapse? We approach the subject by comparing the responses of the unemployment rate to an output shock on those economies (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) with those of a benchmark economy – the USA. Our methodological strategy relies on one of the pillars of empirical macroeconomics the Okun Law (OL) which we incorporated in a VAR model. We addressed two drawbac...

A Política Monetária do BCE. Uma estratégia original para a estabilidade nominal

Nesta comunicação procurei mostrar a originalidade da política monetária do Banco Central Europeu (BCE), a dificuldade de uma avaliação conclusiva da sua acção e o contexto teórico da sua intervenção. Também foi feita uma avaliação da sua capacidade de resposta à actual crise, assim como das perspectivas de alterações institucionais que o envolvem. Sempre que desejável foi feita a comparação com o caso norte-am...

Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in a Target Zone: The Portuguese Case

This work examines the participation of the Portuguese economy in the ERM of the EMS based on some of the main predictions of the target zone literature. The exchange rate distribution reveals that the majority of the observations lie close to the central parity, thus rejecting one of the key predictions of the Krugman (1991) model. Using a M-GARCH model however we confirm that there is a trade-off between exch...