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Turning the tide: a 2°C increase in heat tolerance can halve climate change‐ind...
Hill, Griffin; Gauci, Clément; Assis, Jorge; Jueterbock, AlexanderKelp forests are susceptible to climate change, as their sessile nature and low dispersal capacity hinder tracking of suitable conditions. The emergence of a wide array of approaches to increasing thermal tolerance seeks to change the outlook of biodiversity in a changing climate but lacks clear targets of impactful thermal resilience. Here, we utilize species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate the potentia...
Trophic convergence of marine vertebrate communities worldwide
González-Trujillo, Juan David; Assis, Jorge; Serrao, Ester A.; Costello, Mark John; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Mendoza, Manuel; Araújo, Miguel B.Biogeographic regions arise due to constraints on species ranges, fostering lineage divergence as a result. Yet, convergent evolution means that evolutionary distinct lineages can share similar characteristics when subjected to similar environmental conditions. The ecological convergence of distinct regions has been demonstrated in terrestrial communities, but it remains uncertain if marine systems exhibit simi...
Coastal oceanographic connectivity at the global scale: a dataset of pairwise p...
Assis, Jorge; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Serrao, Ester A.; Bastos Araújo, MiguelOcean currents are fundamental drivers of marine biodiversity distribution, mediating the exchange of genetic material and individuals between populations. Their effect ranges from creating barriers that foster isolation to facilitating long-distance dispersal, which is crucial for species expansion and resilience in the face of climate change. Despite the significance of oceanographic connectivity, comprehensi...
Projected climate change and limited dispersal potential threaten the seahorse ...
Peiffer, Friederike; Assis, Jorge; Lima, André R. A.; Henriques, Sofia; Pardal, Miguel A.; Martinho, Filipe; Gonçalves, Jorge Manuel SantosClimate change is predicted to drive species redistribution, altering the composition of marine communities and affecting ecosystem functioning. There is increasing evidence that fish distributions follow a trend of poleward expansion, while realised niches often decrease in range size. This study aimed to assess the influence of oceanographic connectivity and intrinsic dispersal mechanisms on changes in suitab...
Multi-generation dispersal shapes the genetic structure of the canopy-forming s...
Reynes, Lauric; Legrand, Térence; Blanfuné, Aurélie; Assis, Jorge; Thibaut, Thierry; Bottin, LorraineCanopy-forming seaweeds, especially fucoids (Fucales, Phaeophyceae), constitute marine forests in the Mediterranean Sea that deliver key ecosystem services. However, escalating human pressures in coastal areas have led to habitat fragmentation, significantly impacting the dynamics of gene flow and evolutionary trajectories. In this study, we investigated population connectivity among 43 sites with Ericaria amen...
Marine forests forever—A necessary multilateral program for a fair future
Horta, Paulo; Sissini, Marina N.; Fonseca, Alessandra; Turra, Alexander; Rodrigues, Ana Claudia; Rorig, Leonardo; Bonomi‐Barufi, José; Pagliosa, PauloNot only advances but also old addictions, setbacks, obstructions and delays are observed during COP16 (on biodiversity), COP29 (on climate change) and G20 in a year full of tragedies resulting from climate change; we need to look in the rearview mirror and plan new paths to be presented and discussed at COP30, in 2025, in the Brazilian Amazon. Worldwide temperature records show that 2023 and 2024 were the warm...
Extinction risk of the endemic soft coral Phyllogorgia dilatata (Esper, 1806) i...
Anderson, A. B.; Gouvêa, Lidiane; Assis, Jorge; Serrao, Ester A.; Pinheiro, H. T.; Vilar, C.; Francini-Filho, R. B.; Horta, P. A.; Bernardino, A. F.The Brazilian endemic octocoral Phyllogorgia dilatata (elephant ear sea fan) plays a crucial ecological role in the marine ecosystems of the Brazilian coast. Our work investigates the local extinction of P. dilatata on Trindade Island, a remote oceanic island in the Southwestern Atlantic, and assesses the potential impacts of climate change on its distribution. Field surveys conducted over two years (2016-2019)...
Global intraspecific diversity of marine forests of brown macroalgae predicted ...
Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Serrao, Ester A.; Clerck, Olivier De; Assis, JorgeGlobal patterns of intraspecific genetic diversity are key to understanding evolutionary and ecological processes. However, insights into the distribution and drivers of genetic diversity remain limited, particularly for marine species. Here, we explain and predict the genetic diversity of cold and temperate brown macroalgae using genetic data from 29 species and a machine-learning algorithm that incorporates c...
Range map data of marine ecosystem structuring species under global climate change
Gouvêa, Lidiane; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Legrand, Térence; Serrao, Ester; Assis, JorgeData on contemporary and future geographical distributions of marine species are crucial for guiding conservation and management policies in face of climate change. However, available distributional patterns have overlooked key ecosystem structuring species, despite their numerous ecological and socioeconomic services. Future range estimates are mostly available for few species at regional scales, and often rel...
Bio‐ORACLE v3.0. pushing marine data layers to the CMIP6 earth system models of...
Assis, Jorge; Fernández Bejarano, Salvador Jesús; Salazar, Vinícius W.; Schepers, Lennert; Gouvêa, Lidiane; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Leclercq, FredericMotivation: Impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity are often projected with species distribution modelling using standardized data layers representing physical, chemical and biological conditions of the global ocean. Yet, the available data layers (1) have not been updated to incorporate data of the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), which comprise the Shared Socioeconom...