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Private financing, R&D, and export activity: evidence from Portugal

Using firm-level data for Portugal, 2006–2021, we investigate linkages between private financing — private equity (including venture capital) and private debt — and firms’ exporting and innovation. Combining matching and regression procedures, we find that private financing is associated with exporting and R&D activity. Firms financed by private equity are more likely to export and to export a larger share of t...

The economic study of politics: Insights and reflections

Economic and political phenomena coexist in society, but are often seen as divergent spheres of human action and interaction. A theoretical manifestation of this separation is the assumption that while economic agents act in their own self-interest, political agents are motivated by the public interest. Additionally, it is commonly assumed – if only implic-itly – that political agents possess all the necessary ...

Political Survival in the AI Era: a Political Economy Inquiry [Comunicação oral]

The role that artificial intelligence (AI) may play on the stability of democracies and autocracies or in fostering regime transitions has attracted significant attention in recent years. Empirical evidence shows that public expenditures on AI are on the rise in autocracies and a correlation between the deployment of AI and a decrease in social unrest has been documented. [...]

Social expenditure composition and inequality: A dynamic panel threshold analys...

This paper studies the relationship between inequality and public social spending for an overall sample of 28 OECD countries spanning 1997 to 2017. We add to the literature by dissecting social expenditure according to nine programs and allowing for the existence of a non-linear relation in the context of a dynamic panel threshold model. The analysis reveals a positive contribution of old-age pensions to the Gi...

Social expenditure composition, inequality and growth in the OECD: Labour marke...

The Financialization of Health and Education and Inequality in Twenty-first Cen...

AI, Demand and the Impact of Productivity-enhancing Technology on Jobs: Evidenc...

This study examines whether AI, as revealed in productivity improvements, may have the ability to threaten sectoral employment in Portugal. We first present a theoretical framework based on a supply and demand model for sectoral output. This model predicts that the impact of AI will depend on the response of labor demand to two opposing forces: as productivity improves less labor is required to produce the same...

The political economy of productivity growth

This paper empirically evaluates the importance of institutions and political stability for productivity growth. We explore this relation in a novel way by evaluating the impact of political and institutional variables on the structural change and within-sector components of labor productivity growth. Our results do not provide robust evidence that democracy/autocracy affects productivity growth, either through...

Is the Welfare State Relevant for Economic Growth? Evidence for Portugal

Exports since the International Financial Crisis

The aim of this paper is to analyze the performance of several models for forecasting exports. We collected data on Portugal’s real exports of goods and on the variables suggested by models based on the assumption of perfect competition and of monopolistic competition. We estimated Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models with those variables and compared the performance of the forecasts produced by those models with...