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Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Madaniyazi, L; Armstrong, B; Tobias, A; Mistry, MN; Bell, ML; Urban, A; Kyselý, J; Ryti, N; Cvijanovic, I; Ng, CFS; Roye, D; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Tong, S

Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean ...


Fluctuating risk of acute kidney injury-related mortality for four weeks after ...

Min, J; Kang, D-H; Kang, C; Bell, ML; Kim, H; Yang, J; Gasparrini, A; Lavigne, E; Hashizume, M; Kim, Y; Fook Sheng Ng, C; Honda, Y; Pereira da Silva, SN

Background: Recent studies have reported that air pollution is related to kidney diseases. However, the global evidence on the risk of death from acute kidney injury (AKI) owing to air pollution is limited. Therefore, we investigated the association between short-term exposure to air pollution—particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)—and AKI-related mortality using a multi-cou...


Air pollution mixture complexity and its effect on PM2.5-related mortality: A m...

Masselot, P; Kan, H; Kharol, SK; Bell, ML; Sera, F; Lavigne, E; Breitner, S; Das Neves Pereira Da Silva, S; Burnett, RT; Gasparrini, A; Brook, JR

Background: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) occurs within a mixture of other pollutant gases that interact and impact its composition and toxicity. To characterize the local toxicity of PM2.5, it is useful to have an index that accounts for the whole pollutant mix, including gaseous pollutants. We consider a recently proposed pollutant mixture complexity index (PMCI) to evaluate to which extent it relates to PM...


Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability o...

Wen, B; Wu, Y; Guo, Y; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Zanobetti, A; Analitis, A; Zeka, A

Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758...


Temporal variations in the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on cardi...

Schwarz, M; Peters, A; Stafoggia, M; de'Donato, F; Sera, F; Bell, ML; Guo, Y; Honda, Y; Huber, V; Jaakkola, JJK; Urban, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

Background: Ambient air pollution, including particulate matter (such as PM10 and PM2·5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), has been linked to increases in mortality. Whether populations’ vulnerability to these pollutants has changed over time is unclear, and studies on this topic do not include multicountry analysis. We evaluated whether changes in exposure to air pollutants were associated with changes in mortality ...


Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality

Guo, Q; Mistry, MN; Zhou, X; Zhao, G; Kino, K; Wen, B; Cvijanovic, I; Yoshimura, K; Satoh, Y; Kim, Y; Ng, CFS; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Armstrong, B

The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term tr...


Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in...

Schumacher, AE; Kyu, HH; Aali, A; Abbafati, C; Abbas, J; Abbasgholizadeh, R; Abbasi, MA; Abbasian, M; Abd ElHafeez, S; Abdelmasseh, M; Abd Elsalam, S

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides n...


Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries

Stafoggia, M; Michelozzi, P; Schneider, A; Armstrong, B; Scortichini, M; Rai, M; Achilleos, S; Alahmad, B; Analitis, A; Åström, C; Bell, ML; Calleja, N

Background The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. Objectives To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitr...


Interactive effects of ambient fine particulate matter and ozone on daily morta...

Liu, C; Chen, R; Sera, F; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Guo, Y; Tong, S; Lavigne, E; Correa, PM; Ortega, NV; Achilleos, S; Roye, D; Jaakkola, JJ; Ryti, N

Objective To investigate potential interactive effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) on daily mortality at global level. Design Two stage time series analysis. Setting 372 cities across 19 countries and regions. Population Daily counts of deaths from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. Main outcome measure Daily mortality data during 1994-2020. Stratified analyses by...


Short-Term Association between Sulfur Dioxide and Mortality: A Multicountry Ana...

O'Brien, E; Masselot, P; Sera, F; Roye, D; Breitner, S; Ng, CFS; Coelho, MDZS; Madureira, J; Tobias, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Bell, ML; Lavigne, E

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence on the health risks of sulfur dioxide (SO2) is more limited compared with other pollutants, and doubts remain on several aspects, such as the form of the exposure-response relationship, the potential role of copollutants, as well as the actual risk at low concentrations and possible temporal variation in risks.OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to assess the short-term association betw...


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