25 documents found, page 1 of 3
Numerical investigation of the Pedrógão Grande pyrocumulonimbus using a fire to...
Couto, Flavio Tiago; Filippi, Jean-Baptiste; Baggio, Roberta; Campos, Cátia; Salgado, RuiUnderstanding the development of fire-generated thunderstorms in mega fire events is important given their high impact on the evolution of the fire fronts, where the fire spread becomes highly unpredictable and difficult to suppress. This study aims to investigate numerically the influence of strong pyro-convective activity on the local atmospheric conditions by means of a numerical simulation based on the coup...
Triggering Pyro-Convection in a High-Resolution Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Simulation
Couto, Flavio Tiago; Filippi, Jean-Baptiste; Baggio, Roberta; Campos, Cátia; Salgado, RuiThis study aimed to assess fire–atmosphere interactions using the fully coupled Meso-NH–ForeFire system. We focused on the Pedrógão Grande wildfire (28,914 ha), which occurred in June 2017 and was one of the deadliest and most damaging fires in Portugal’s history. Two simulations (control and fully coupled fire–atmosphere) were performed for three two-way nested domains configured with horizontal resolutions of...
Exploring the atmospheric conditions increasing fire danger in the Iberian Peni...
Purificação, Carolina; Campos, Cátia; Henkes, Alice; Couto, Flavio TiagoThe fire danger is particularly sensitive to meteorological conditions. The present study discusses the atmospheric conditions during three periods to evaluate how they can increase fire danger. A set of three convection-permitting simulations was configured at 2.5 km resolution using the Meso-NH model. In the first period, the intense surface heating induced by a heatwave favoured the development of the Iberia...
A Case Study of the Possible Meteorological Causes of Unexpected Fire Behavior ...
Couto, Flavio Tiago; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Campos, Cátia; Purificação, Carolina; Andrade, Nuno; López-Vega, Juan M.; Lacroix, MatthieuThis study provides insights into large fires in the Pantanal by analyzing the atmospheric conditions that influenced the rapid fire evolution between 13 and 14 November 2023, when fire fronts spread rapidly, leading to critical situations for firefighters. The observation-based analysis helped us to identify some characteristics of the fire’s evolution and the meteorological conditions in the region. Furthermo...
ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Mainland Portugal during Four Fire Seasons
Campos, Cátia; Couto, Flavio Tiago; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Rio, João; Ferreira, Teresa; Salgado, RuiThe study evaluated the ECMWF model ability in forecasting lightning in Portugal during four fire seasons (2019–2022). The evaluation was made based on lightning data from the national lightning detector network, which was aggregated into resolutions of 0.5° and 1° over 3 h periods and analyzed from statistical indices using two contingency tables. The results showed that the model overestimates the lightning o...
Modelling fire-induced meteorological phenomena using the MesoNH/ForeFire model
Campos, Cátia; Couto, Flavio Tiago; Filippi, Jean-Baptiste; Baggio, Roberta; Salgado, RuiCloud-resolving models coupled to fire propagation models is a powerful tool to understand fire-atmosphere environment. Portugal is one of the countries in Southern Europe with most burned area and numerous ignitions. In 2017, Portugal was affected by several mega-fires with burned areas larger than 10 000 hectares. Some of these fires presented the development of convective clouds, namely pyro-cumulus (pyroCu)...
ECMWF lightning forecasts evaluation during fire seasons in Portugal
Campos, Cátia; Couto, Flavio Tiago; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Rio, João; Ferreira, Teresa; Salgado, RuiLightning represents only 5-10% of fire causes in Europe and 1-2% in Portugal and correctly predicting its occurrence can help to mitigate large forest fires. In 2016, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) introduced a parametrization for lightning forecast. Therefore, aiming to assess the feasibility of using ECMWF forecasts in the context of natural wildfires, this study analyses the ...
Towards a better understanding of pyroconvective clouds using Meso-NH/ForeFire ...
Couto, Flavio Tiago; Campos, Cátia; Filippi, Jean-Baptiste; Baggio, Roberta; Purificação, Carolina; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Salgado, RuiIn 2017, Portugal was affected by several mega-fire episodes, which led the convective clouds formation, i.e., pyroCumulus (pyroCu) or pyroCumulonimbus (pyroCb). The pyroCb plays a crucial role in the fire front evolution through feedback processes between the atmosphere and the fire, including increased burn and spread rates by surface wind speed and direction variations. In order to investigate the pyro-conve...
Assessing ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Portugal during fire seasons
Campos, Cátia; Couto, Flavio Tiago; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Rio, João; Ferreira, Teresa; Purificação, Carolina; Salgado, RuiPortugal is one of the European countries that faces significant challenges with wildfires. While lightning-triggered natural fires constitute a minority compared to anthropogenic ones, accurate forecasting of lightning occurrences is crucial for effective prevention. The study assesses the ECMWF model's capability to predict lightning in Portugal over four fire seasons [2019-2022]. Observed lightning data was ...
Meteorological environments leading to two large fires in Southern Portugal
Purificação, Carolina; Campos, Cátia; Henkes, Alice; Kartsios, Stergios; Couto, Flavio TiagoThe study is a step forward in the characterization of meteorological environments that favour the evolution of large and extreme fires in Southern Portugal. The region has some fire-prone areas which are recognized by the mega fires occurred in 2003, 2005, and 2018. Two numerical simulations were performed using the Meso-NH non-hydrostatic research model and used to investigate in detail the atmospheric enviro...