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Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological f...

We use an age-dependent SIR system of equations to model the evolution of the COVID-19. Parameters that measure the amount of interaction in different locations (home, work, school, other) are approximated from in-sample data using a random optimization scheme, and indicate changes in social distancing along the course of the pandemic. That allows the estimation of the time evolution of classical and age-depend...

Divisia index, inflation, and welfare

This paper addresses a usual criticism in the literature of the welfare costs of inflation, related to the fact that some items in the relevant definition of money pay interests, while others do not. We show that the problem can be solved by using a Divisia index of monetary services as the welfare measure

Banking and financial deepening in Brazil

The initiative of Professors Lees and Cysne, and of James Botts, to write a book on the Brazilian financial system is commendable. The topic is of utmost importance. Over the past 25 years Brazilian legislators and monetary authorities have had to cope with high and volatile rates of inflation. In their efforts these authorities have created one of the most complex financial systems of the western world, one po...

Estimating debt limits for emerging countries

The relationship between sovereign risk and indebtedness level is an important guide for evaluating the probability of a debt default. The market discipline hypothesis establishes that the risk premium increases with debt-to-GDP ratio. According to this hypothesis' strong version, this relation is non-linear, and there is a threshold - here called debt limit - from which the credit access would be very difficul...

COVID-19: análise com um modelo estatístico para dados em painel

Esse trabalho tem por objetivo oferecer resultados relativos ao impacto de algumas variáveis mencionadas na literatura, sobre a taxa de variação diária de casos (por milhão de habitantes) registrados da COVID-19. Utilizam-se dados diários para 165 países, entre 22 de janeiro e 30 de abril de 2020 e um modelo estatístico para dados em painel. Fica clara, na análise, a importância do isolamento social no controle...

Social distancing, temperature, BCG and the evolution of COVID-19: a panel-mode...

Background: This work presents results concerning the impact of some variables mentioned in the literature on the daily variation rate of cases (per million inhabitants) of COVID-19, based on a large sample of countries and an empirical model with appropriate control factors. We also propose indicators for measuring social distancing and BCG (Bacilo Calmette-Guérin) vaccine immunization. Methods: A statistical ...

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