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Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Madaniyazi, L; Armstrong, B; Tobias, A; Mistry, MN; Bell, ML; Urban, A; Kyselý, J; Ryti, N; Cvijanovic, I; Ng, CFS; Roye, D; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Tong, S

Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean ...


Temperature-mortality associations by age and cause: a multi-country multi-city...

Scovronick, N; Sera, F; Vu, B; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Roye, D; Tobias, A; Seposo, X; Forsberg, B; Guo, Y; Li, S; Honda, Y; Abrutzky, R

"Background: Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries. Methods: We collected daily te...


Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones f...

Huang, WZ; Li, SS; Vogt, T; Xu, RB; Tong, SL; Molina, T; Masselot, P; Gasparrini, A; Armstrong, B; Pascal, M; Royé, D; Ng, CFS; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

Background The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019.Methods The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametric wind field model at a grid resolution of 0 & BULL;5 & DEG;x 0 &...


The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced clima...

Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Scovronick, N; Sera, F; Royé, D; Schneider, R; Tobias, A; Astrom, C; Guo, Y; Honda, Y; Hondula, DM; Abrutzky, R; Tong, S

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991...


Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale:...

Tobías, A; Hashizume, M; Honda Y; Sera, F; Ng, CFS; Kim, Y; Roye, D; Chung, Y; Dang, TN; Kim, H; Lee, W; Íñiguez, C; Vicedo-Cabrera, A; Abrutzky, R

Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to deriv...


Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ...

Zhao, Q; Guo, Y; Ye, T; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Zanobetti, A; Analitis, A

Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the gl...


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