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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells ...

Gao, Y; Huang, W; Zhao, Q; Ryti, N; Armstrong, B; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Pascal, M; Urban, A; Zeka, A; Lavigne, E; Madureira, J; Goodman, P; Huber, V

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. METHODS: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related morta...


Ambient fine particulate matter and daily mortality: a comparative analysis of ...

Yu, W; Huang, W; Gasparrini, A; Sera, F; Schneider, A; Breitner, S; Kyselý, J; Schwartz, J; Madureira, J; Gaio, V; Guo, YL; Xu, R; Chen, G; Yang, Z

Background: Model-estimated air pollution exposure products have been widely used in epidemiological studies to assess the health risks of particulate matter with diameters of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5). However, few studies have assessed the disparities in health effects between model-estimated and station-observed PM2.5 exposures. Methods: We collected daily all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality data in 34...


Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time...

He, C; Breitner-Busch, S; Huber, V; Chen, K; Zhang, S; Gasparrini, A; Bell, M; Kan, H; Royé, D; Armstrong, B; Schwartz, J; Sera, F; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

"Objective: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. Population: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths fr...


Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Madaniyazi, L; Armstrong, B; Tobias, A; Mistry, MN; Bell, ML; Urban, A; Kyselý, J; Ryti, N; Cvijanovic, I; Ng, CFS; Roye, D; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Tong, S

Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean ...


Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of cl...

Domingo, NGG; Fiore, AM; Lamarque, J-F; Kinney, PL; Jiang, L; Gasparrini, A; Breitner, S; Lavigne, E; Madureira, J; Masselot, P; Silva, SDNPD

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mort...


Fluctuating risk of acute kidney injury-related mortality for four weeks after ...

Min, J; Kang, D-H; Kang, C; Bell, ML; Kim, H; Yang, J; Gasparrini, A; Lavigne, E; Hashizume, M; Kim, Y; Fook Sheng Ng, C; Honda, Y; Pereira da Silva, SN

Background: Recent studies have reported that air pollution is related to kidney diseases. However, the global evidence on the risk of death from acute kidney injury (AKI) owing to air pollution is limited. Therefore, we investigated the association between short-term exposure to air pollution—particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)—and AKI-related mortality using a multi-cou...


Air pollution mixture complexity and its effect on PM2.5-related mortality: A m...

Masselot, P; Kan, H; Kharol, SK; Bell, ML; Sera, F; Lavigne, E; Breitner, S; Das Neves Pereira Da Silva, S; Burnett, RT; Gasparrini, A; Brook, JR

Background: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) occurs within a mixture of other pollutant gases that interact and impact its composition and toxicity. To characterize the local toxicity of PM2.5, it is useful to have an index that accounts for the whole pollutant mix, including gaseous pollutants. We consider a recently proposed pollutant mixture complexity index (PMCI) to evaluate to which extent it relates to PM...


Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multi...

Yang, D; Hashizume, M; Tobías, A; Honda, Y; Roye, D; Oh, J; Dang, TN; Kim, Y; Abrutzky, R; Guo, Y; Tong, S; Coelho, MDSZS; Saldiva, PHN; Lavigne, E

Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality a...


Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different...

Chen, K; de Schrijver, E; Sivaraj, S; Sera, F; Scovronick, N; Jiang, L; Roye, D; Lavigne, E; Kyselý, J; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Huber, V; Madureira, J

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; amon...


Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature

Wu, Y; Wen, B; Gasparrini, A; Armstrong, B; Sera, F; Lavigne, E; Li, S; Guo, Y; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled ...


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