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Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time...

He, Cheng; Breitner-Busch, Susanne; Huber, Veronika; Chen, Kai; Zhang, Siqi; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bell, Michelle; Kan, Haidong; Royé, Dominic

Objective: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. Population: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths fro...


Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A mult...

Yang, Daewon; Hashizume, Masahiro; Tobías, Aurelio; Honda, Yasushi; Roye, Dominic; Oh, Jaemin; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Kim, Yoonhee; Abrutzky, Rosana

Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality a...


Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature

Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Sera, Francesco; Lavigne, Eric; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš

Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled ...


All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone...

Chen, Gongbo; Guo, Yuming; Yue, Xu; Xu, Rongbin; Yu,Wenhua; Ye, Tingting; Tong, Shilu; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bell,Michelle L.; Armstrong, Ben

Background: Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O3 exposure with mortality globally. Methods: We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis. From the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, data on daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory dea...


Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different...

Chen, Kai; de Schrijver, Evan; Sivaraj, Sidharth; Sera, Francesco; Scovronick, Noah; Jiang, Leiwen; Roye, Dominic; Lavigne, Eric; Kyselý, Jan

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; amon...


Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells ...

Gao, Yuan; Huang, Wenzhong; Zhao, Qi; Ryti, Niilo; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Pascal, Mathilde; Urban, Aleš; Zeka, Ariana

Background: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. Methods: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related morta...


Global, regional, and national burden of heatwave-related mortality from 1990 t...

Zhao, Qi; Li, Shanshan; Ye, Tingting; Wu, Yao; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Urban, Aleš; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Tobias, Aurelio; Armstrong, Ben

Background: The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and the temporal change from 1990 to 2019. Methods and findings: We collected d...


Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study ...

Masselot, Pierre; Mistry, Malcolm; Vanoli, Jacopo; Schneider, Rochelle; Iungman, Tamara; Garcia-Leon, David; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Feyen, Luc; Orru, Hans

Background: Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and a...


Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones f...

Huang, Wenzhong; Li, Shanshan; Vogt, Thomas; Xu, Rongbin; Tong, Shilu; Molina, Tomás; Masselot, Pierre; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben

Background: The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019. Methods: The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametric wind field model at a grid resolution of 0·5° × 0·5°. A tota...


Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones f...

Huang, Wenzhong; Li, Shanshan; Vogt, Thomas; Xu, Rongbin; Tong, Shilu; Molina, Tomás; Masselot, Pierre; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben

Background: The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019. Methods: The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametric wind field model at a grid resolution of 0·5° × 0·5°. A tota...


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