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Marine forests forever—A necessary multilateral program for a fair future

Horta, Paulo; Sissini, Marina N.; Fonseca, Alessandra; Turra, Alexander; Rodrigues, Ana Claudia; Rorig, Leonardo; Bonomi‐Barufi, José; Pagliosa, Paulo

Not only advances but also old addictions, setbacks, obstructions and delays are observed during COP16 (on biodiversity), COP29 (on climate change) and G20 in a year full of tragedies resulting from climate change; we need to look in the rearview mirror and plan new paths to be presented and discussed at COP30, in 2025, in the Brazilian Amazon. Worldwide temperature records show that 2023 and 2024 were the warm...


Extinction risk of the endemic soft coral Phyllogorgia dilatata (Esper, 1806) i...

Anderson, A. B.; Gouvêa, Lidiane; Assis, Jorge; Serrao, Ester A.; Pinheiro, H. T.; Vilar, C.; Francini-Filho, R. B.; Horta, P. A.; Bernardino, A. F.

The Brazilian endemic octocoral Phyllogorgia dilatata (elephant ear sea fan) plays a crucial ecological role in the marine ecosystems of the Brazilian coast. Our work investigates the local extinction of P. dilatata on Trindade Island, a remote oceanic island in the Southwestern Atlantic, and assesses the potential impacts of climate change on its distribution. Field surveys conducted over two years (2016-2019)...


Range map data of marine ecosystem structuring species under global climate change

Gouvêa, Lidiane; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Legrand, Térence; Serrao, Ester; Assis, Jorge

Data on contemporary and future geographical distributions of marine species are crucial for guiding conservation and management policies in face of climate change. However, available distributional patterns have overlooked key ecosystem structuring species, despite their numerous ecological and socioeconomic services. Future range estimates are mostly available for few species at regional scales, and often rel...


Bio‐ORACLE v3.0. pushing marine data layers to the CMIP6 earth system models of...

Assis, Jorge; Fernández Bejarano, Salvador Jesús; Salazar, Vinícius W.; Schepers, Lennert; Gouvêa, Lidiane; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Leclercq, Frederic

Motivation: Impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity are often projected with species distribution modelling using standardized data layers representing physical, chemical and biological conditions of the global ocean. Yet, the available data layers (1) have not been updated to incorporate data of the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), which comprise the Shared Socioeconom...


Kelp forest diversity under projected end‐of‐century climate change

Assis, Jorge; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Gouvêa, Lidiane; Araújo, Miguel B.; Serrao, Ester

Aim: Future climate change threatens marine forests across the world, potentially disrupting ecosystem function and services. Nonetheless, the direction and intensity of climate-induced changes in kelp forest biodiversity remain unknown, precluding well-informed conservation and management practices. Location: Global. Methods: We use machine-learning models to forecast global changes in species richness and com...


Seagrass biodiversity under the latest‐generation scenarios of projected climat...

Gouvêa, Lidiane; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Araújo, Miguel B.; Serrao, Ester A.; Assis, Jorge

AimThe potentially cascading consequences of climate changes on redistribution of habitat-forming species, like seagrasses, remain a major research gap. Empirical demonstrations of local population changes are increasingly reported without a globally integrated predictive framework as a leading testable hypothesis. Therefore, here, we aimed to estimate changes in species richness, community composition, and are...


Unravelling the role of oceanographic connectivity in the distribution of genet...

Legrand, Térence; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Gouvêa, Lidiane; Serrao, Ester A.; Assis, Jorge; Vapillon, Lauren

Aim Genetic diversity of marine forests results from complex interactions of eco-evolutionary processes. Among them, oceanographic connectivity driven by dispersal through water transport is hypothesized to play a pivotal role, yet its relative contribution has not been addressed at the global scale. Here, we test how present-day oceanographic connectivity is correlated with the distribution of genetic diversit...


Oceanographic connectivity explains the intra-specific diversity of mangrove fo...

Gouvêa, Lidiane; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Cavanaugh, Kyle; Serrao, Ester; Araújo, Miguel B.; Costello, Mark John; Westergerling, E. H. Taraneh; Assis, Jorge

The distribution of mangrove intra-specific biodiversity can be structured by historical demographic processes that enhance or limit effective population sizes. Oceanographic connectivity (OC) may further structure intra-specific biodiversity by preserving or diluting the genetic signatures of historical changes. Despite its relevance for biogeography and evolution, the role of oceanographic connectivity in str...


Carbon density in boreal forests responds non-linearly to temperature: an examp...

Liu, Yang; Trancoso, Ralph; Ma, Qin; Ciais, Philippe; Gouvêa, Lidiane; Yue, Chaofang; Assis, Jorge; Blanco, Juan A.

Boreal forests play a crucial role in the global carbon (C) cycle and in climate stabilization. To better predict global C budgets, it is important to accurately estimate the size of forest C pools, and to identify the factors affecting them. We used national forest inventory data for the Greater Khingan Mountains, northeast China from 1999 to 2018 and 149 additional field plots to estimate C storage and its ch...


Effects of ocean warming and pollution on Sargassum forests

Peres, Letícia M. Costa; Gouvêa, Lidiane; Hayden, Juliana; Burle, Giulia; Bastos, Eduardo; Carneiro, Alessandra; Horta, Paulo A.

The combined effects of climate change and ocean pollution have resulted in a noteworthy decline of canopyforming species, impacting marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning significantly. In this context, Sargassum cymosum, which is widely distributed along the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, serves as an excellent model among canopy-forming species to investigate these impacts on populations in different re...


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