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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells ...

Gao, Y; Huang, W; Zhao, Q; Ryti, N; Armstrong, B; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Pascal, M; Urban, A; Zeka, A; Lavigne, E; Madureira, J; Goodman, P; Huber, V

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. METHODS: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related morta...


Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time...

He, C; Breitner-Busch, S; Huber, V; Chen, K; Zhang, S; Gasparrini, A; Bell, M; Kan, H; Royé, D; Armstrong, B; Schwartz, J; Sera, F; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

"Objective: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. Population: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths fr...


Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Madaniyazi, L; Armstrong, B; Tobias, A; Mistry, MN; Bell, ML; Urban, A; Kyselý, J; Ryti, N; Cvijanovic, I; Ng, CFS; Roye, D; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Tong, S

Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean ...


Air pollution mixture complexity and its effect on PM2.5-related mortality: A m...

Masselot, P; Kan, H; Kharol, SK; Bell, ML; Sera, F; Lavigne, E; Breitner, S; Das Neves Pereira Da Silva, S; Burnett, RT; Gasparrini, A; Brook, JR

Background: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) occurs within a mixture of other pollutant gases that interact and impact its composition and toxicity. To characterize the local toxicity of PM2.5, it is useful to have an index that accounts for the whole pollutant mix, including gaseous pollutants. We consider a recently proposed pollutant mixture complexity index (PMCI) to evaluate to which extent it relates to PM...


Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multi...

Yang, D; Hashizume, M; Tobías, A; Honda, Y; Roye, D; Oh, J; Dang, TN; Kim, Y; Abrutzky, R; Guo, Y; Tong, S; Coelho, MDSZS; Saldiva, PHN; Lavigne, E

Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality a...


Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different...

Chen, K; de Schrijver, E; Sivaraj, S; Sera, F; Scovronick, N; Jiang, L; Roye, D; Lavigne, E; Kyselý, J; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Huber, V; Madureira, J

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; amon...


Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature

Wu, Y; Wen, B; Gasparrini, A; Armstrong, B; Sera, F; Lavigne, E; Li, S; Guo, Y; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled ...


Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Tempera...

Hundessa, S; Huang, W; Zhao, Q; Wu, Y; Wen, B; Alahmad, B; Armstrong, B; Gasparrini, A; Sera, F; Tong, S; Madureira, J; Kyselý, J; Schwartz, J

Background: The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. Objectives: The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. Methods: Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from...


Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability o...

Wen, B; Wu, Y; Guo, Y; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Zanobetti, A; Analitis, A; Zeka, A

Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758...


Temporal variations in the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on cardi...

Schwarz, M; Peters, A; Stafoggia, M; de'Donato, F; Sera, F; Bell, ML; Guo, Y; Honda, Y; Huber, V; Jaakkola, JJK; Urban, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

Background: Ambient air pollution, including particulate matter (such as PM10 and PM2·5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), has been linked to increases in mortality. Whether populations’ vulnerability to these pollutants has changed over time is unclear, and studies on this topic do not include multicountry analysis. We evaluated whether changes in exposure to air pollutants were associated with changes in mortality ...


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