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Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Madaniyazi, L; Armstrong, B; Tobias, A; Mistry, MN; Bell, ML; Urban, A; Kyselý, J; Ryti, N; Cvijanovic, I; Ng, CFS; Roye, D; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Tong, S

Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean ...


Temporal variations in the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on cardi...

Schwarz, M; Peters, A; Stafoggia, M; de'Donato, F; Sera, F; Bell, ML; Guo, Y; Honda, Y; Huber, V; Jaakkola, JJK; Urban, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

Background: Ambient air pollution, including particulate matter (such as PM10 and PM2·5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), has been linked to increases in mortality. Whether populations’ vulnerability to these pollutants has changed over time is unclear, and studies on this topic do not include multicountry analysis. We evaluated whether changes in exposure to air pollutants were associated with changes in mortality ...


Temperature-mortality associations by age and cause: a multi-country multi-city...

Scovronick, N; Sera, F; Vu, B; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Roye, D; Tobias, A; Seposo, X; Forsberg, B; Guo, Y; Li, S; Honda, Y; Abrutzky, R

"Background: Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries. Methods: We collected daily te...


Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term t...

Wu, Y; Li, S; Zhao, Q; Wen, B; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Zanobetti, A; Analitis, A

Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Th...


Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ...

Zhao, Q; Guo, Y; Ye, T; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Zanobetti, A; Analitis, A

Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the gl...


Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under clim...

Lee, W; Kim, Y; Sera, F; Gasparrini, A; Park, R; Michelle Choi, H; Prifti, K; Bell, ML; Abrutzky, R; Guo, Y; Tong, S

Background. Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions. Methods. DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, ...


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