10 documents found, page 1 of 1
Estimativa de risco de espalhamento da COVID-19 no Brasil e o impacto no sistem...
Codeço, Claudia Torres; Villela, Daniel; Coelho, Flávio Codeço; Bastos, Leonardo S.; Gomes, Marcelo F.C.; Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves; Lana, Raquel MartinsEsse relatório analisa o risco de importação de COVID-19 para as microrregiões brasileiras decorrente da presença de transmissão sustentada nos dois maiores centros urbanos, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo e os efeitos de possível ocorrência de epidemias nas microrregiões associados a faixas da população com maior risco de morbidade e letalidade, como idosos, e indicadores de capacidade no SUS, como número de leitos...
Estimativa de risco de espalhamento da COVID-19 no Brasil e avaliação da vulner...
Codeço, Claudia Torres; Villela, Daniel; Coelho, Flávio Codeço; Bastos, Leonardo S.; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Gomes, Marcelo F.C.; Cruz, Oswaldo GonçalvesEsse relatório atualiza a análise do risco de disseminação da COVID-19 para as microrregiões brasileiras decorrente da presença de transmissão sustentada nos dois maiores centros urbanos, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo. Faz também a identificação de microrregiões com alta vulnerabilidade social, e maior contingente de população idosa. A combinação de um alto risco de introdução com alta vulnerabilidade constitui em...
Assessing the potential impacts of COVID-19 in Brasil: Mobility, Morbidity and ...
Coelho, Flávio Codeço; Lana, Raquel Martins; Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves; Codeço, Claudia Torres; Villela, Daniel; Bastos, Leonardo S.The two largest Brazilian cities, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, have declared community transmission of COVID-19 on mid March, 2020. In this study we estimated the most vulnerable areas in Brazil for COVID-19, both in terms of risk of introduction and risk of mortality associated with social vulnerability. We explore the most likely routes of spread through the country, from the already exposed cities, accordin...
The introduction of dengue follows transportation infrastructure changes in the...
Lana, Raquel Martins; Gomes, Marcelo Ferreira da Costa; Lima, Tiago França Melo de; Rocha, Nildimar Honorio; Codeço, Cláudia TorresHuman mobility, presence and passive transportation of Aedes aegypti mosquito, and environmental characteristics are a group of factors which contribute to the success of dengue spread and establishment. To understand this process, we assess data from dengue national and municipal basins regarding population and demographics, transportation network, human mobility, and Ae. aegypti monitoring for the Brazilian s...
DengueME : a tool for the modeling and simulation of dengue spatiotemporal dyna...
Lima, Tiago França Melo de; Lana, Raquel Martins; Carneiro, Tiago Garcia de Senna; Codeço, Cláudia Torres; Machado, Gabriel SouzaThe prevention and control of dengue are great public health challenges for many countries, particularly since 2015, as other arboviruses have been observed to interact significantly with dengue virus. Different approaches and methodologies have been proposed and discussed by the research community. An important tool widely used is modeling and simulation, which help us to understand epidemic dynamics and creat...
Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematica...
Lana, Raquel Martins; Morais, Maíra Moreira; Lima, Tiago França Melo de; Carneiro, Tiago Garcia de Senna; Stolerman, Lucas MartinsThe goal of this study was to assess the goodness-of-fit of theoretical models of population dynamics of Aedes aegypti to trap data collected by a long term entomological surveillance program. The carrying capacity K of this vector was estimated at city and neighborhood level. Adult mosquito abundance was measured via adults collected weekly by a network of sticky traps (Mosquitraps) from January 2008 to Decemb...
Socioeconomic and demographic characterization of an endemic malaria region in ...
Lana, Raquel Martins; Riback, Thais Irene Souza; Lima, Tiago França Melo de; Nunes, Mônica da Silva; Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves; Oliveira, Francisco G. S.Background : In the process of geographical retraction of malaria, some important endemicity pockets remain. Here, we report results from a study developed to obtain detailed community data from an important malaria hotspot in Latin America (Alto Juruá, Acre, Brazil), to investigate the association of malaria with socioeconomic, demographic and living conditions. Methods : A household survey was conducted in 40...
Multiscale analysis and modelling of Aedes aegypti population spatial dynamics.
Lana, Raquel Martins; Carneiro, Tiago Garcia de Senna; Rocha, Nildimar Honorio; Codeço, Cláudia TorresPopulation dynamic models requires the evaluation of the best scale of analysis. This work analyses three spatial scales in the context of the mosquito Aedes aegypti, main vector of dengue fever. One scale is the neighborhood, the others scales are the census tract and the lot. A geographical database was developed including point maps with trap locations, number of eggs collected per trap per week, polygons of...
Seasonal and nonseasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil : ...
Lana, Raquel Martins; Carneiro, Tiago Garcia de Senna; Rocha, Nildimar Honorio; Codeço, Cláudia TorresMathematical models suggest that seasonal transmission and temporary cross-immunity betweenserotypes can determine the characteristic multi-year dynamics of dengue fever. Seasonal transmis-sion is attributed to the effect of climate on mosquito abundance and within host virus dynamics. In thisstudy, we validate a set of temperature and density dependent entomological models that are built-incomponents of most d...
Modelos dinâmicos acoplados para simulação da ecologia do vetor Aedes aegypti.
Lana, Raquel MartinsRecentemente, a dinâmica populacional e dispersão do mosquito vetor do vírus Dengue, o Aedes aegypti, tem sido objeto de vários estudos. O uso de modelos computacionais para simulação dessa dinâmica é de grande importância para Saúde Pública, uma vez que permite avaliar áreas de risco de transmissão do Dengue. O Rio de Janeiro, RJ, tem enfrentado fortes epidemias de dengue, sendo a mais grave em 2008. Com o obj...