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Excess all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe – preliminary...

Vestergaard, Lasse S.; Nielsen, Jens; Richter, Lukas; Schmid, Daniela; Bustos, Natalia; Braeye, Toon; Denissov, Gleb; Veideman, Tatjana; Luomala, Oskari

A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period March–April 2020. Excess mortality particularly affected  ≥ 65 year olds (91% of all excess deaths), but al...


FluHMM: a simple and flexible Bayesian algorithm for sentinel influenza surveil...

Lytras, Theodore; Gkolfinopoulou, Kassiani; Bonovas, Stefanos; Nunes, Baltazar

Timely detection of the seasonal influenza epidemic is important for public health action. We introduce FluHMM, a simple but flexible Bayesian algorithm to detect and monitor the seasonal epidemic on sentinel surveillance data. No comparable historical data are required for its use. FluHMM segments a typical influenza surveillance season into five distinct phases with clear interpretation (pre-epidemic, epidemi...


Excess all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in Europe, December 2016 ...

Vestergaard, Lasse S; Nielsen, Jens; Krause, Tyra G; Espenhain, Laura; Tersago, Katrien; Bustos Sierra, Natalia; Denissov, Gleb; Innos, Kaire

Since December 2016, excess all-cause mortality was observed in many European countries, especially among people aged ≥ 65 years. We estimated all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in 19 European countries/regions. Excess mortality was primarily explained by circulation of influenza virus A(H3N2). Cold weather snaps contributed in some countries. The pattern was similar to the last major influenza A(H3...


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