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Portugal in the 21st century

Politicians Support (and Voters Reward) Intra-Party Reforms to Promote Transpar...

Political parties increasingly rely on self-regulation to promote ethical standards in office. The adoption of ethics self-regulation and its ability to induce change is likely to be a function of the responses from politicians and voters. Without external enforcement mechanisms, compliance requires support from legislators. In turn, if voters perceive self-regulation as cheap talk, officials have fewer incenti...

Shattering the duopoly: the 2025 Portuguese elections and the rise of the radic...

The 2025 Portuguese legislative elections consolidated a fundamental change in the country’s party system. Triggered by a high-profile political scandal, the election returned the center-right AD to government. However, it also propelled the radical right Chega to second place in parliament, overtaking the center-left Socialist Party and effectively ending Portugal’s historically duopolistic political landscape...

Political neglect and support for the radical right: The case of rural Portugal

Why are rural voters more likely to support radical right parties? This paper examines the mechanisms behind the relationship between living in a rural area and supporting the Portuguese radical-right party Chega. Portugal's radical right is an interesting case study, not only because of its belated but very fast electoral growth but also because Portugal represents an unusual case of economic convergence betwe...

Introduction

Conceptualizing and measuring support for democracy: a new approach

Much of what we know about public support for democracy is based on survey questions about “democracy,” a term that varies in meaning across countries and likely prompts uncritically supportive responses. This paper proposes a new approach to measuring support for democracy. We develop a battery of 17 survey questions that cover all eight components of liberal democracy as defined by the V-Dem project. We then ...

Economic forecasts and executive approval

This research note investigates how different sources of economic information affected citizens’ approval of the government in Portugal from 2001 to 2018. It compares the predictive power of the revised and most accurate data on GDP growth with other economic indicators that were available to the public at the time, such as the first estimates of recent growth and the forecasts of future growth. It finds that a...

Estudo eleitoral português: base de dados integrada 2002-2024

“Estudo Eleitoral Português: Base de Dados Integrada 2002-2024” é uma base de dados que junta os inquéritos pós-eleitorais conduzidos nos anos 2002, 2005, 2009, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2022 e 2024. Estes inquéritos junto da população adulta portuguesa têm o objetivo de medir o comportamento eleitoral (participação e opção de voto) em eleições legislativas, assim como uma série de potenciais correlatos, incluindo expo...

Emílio Rui Vilar - memórias de dois regimes

Populist radical right rhetoric increases discrimination towards minorities: We...

‘Welfare chauvinism’ (or ‘welfare ethnocentrism,’ when directed against native-born ethnic minorities) is a declination of nativism within the social policy domain and a common element of populist radical right discourse. Previous studies have shown that this rhetoric can influence how people perceive the deservingness and entitlement of certain groups to welfare rights. In this study, we propose it has additio...