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The heterogeneous effects of motorways on urban sprawl: causal evidence from Po...
Rocha, Bruno T.; Melo, Patrícia C.; Colaço, Rui; Silva, João de Abreu e; Afonso, NunoAs urban land increased in mainland Portugal by 55.9% between 1990 and 2012 and the country developed an extensive motorway network between the 1980s and the early 2010s, we set out to investigate the effect of motorways on urban sprawl across mainland municipalities. We document the evolution of urban sprawl for these 275 municipalities across several dimensions, including the population density of urban land,...
Market potential, road accessibility, and firm births : evidence from twenty ye...
Carvalho, Mauricio S. de; Melo, Patrícia C.; Rocha, Bruno T.; Proença, Isabel; Silva, João de Abreu eThis paper investigates the causal effects of road accessibility, measured by market potential, on firm births in Portuguese municipalities between 1991 and 2016, a period marked by significant road improvements. We address the endogeneity of market potential by employing instrumental variables within Poisson Pseudo-maximum Likelihood estimates with fixed effects, which we refer to as “non-local time-variant hi...
Does road accessibility to cities support rural population growth? Evidence for...
Melo, Patrícia C.; Rego, Conceição; Anciães, Paulo Rui; Guiomar, Nuno; Muñoz-Rojas, JoséMotorways in Portugal received large scale funding after the country joined the European Union in 1986, making it an ideal case to study the effect of road accessibility on the development of lagging rural areas. We investigate the relationship between rural population change and road accessibility to the urban hierarchy between 1991 and 2011. We find that rural population growth is negatively associated with i...
What drives the allocation of motorways? Evidence from Portugal's fast-expandin...
Rocha, Bruno T.; Afonso, Nuno; Melo, Patrícia C.; Silva, João de Abreu eThis study investigates the factors that influenced the allocation of motorways across municipalities in mainland Portugal. Our analysis, based on Poisson Pseudo-maximum Likelihood models, suggests that population size and market potential in 1981 are important determinants of motorway density in 2020. Physical and geographical variables also help explain the spatial distribution of motorway investment, as terr...
Does road accessibility to cities support rural population growth? Evidence for...
Melo, Patrícia C.; Rego, Conceição; Anciães, Paulo Rui; Guiomar, Nuno; Muñoz-Rojas, JoséTransport investment is frequently advocated as having the double virtue of achieving both economic growth and territorial cohesion. The idea is that improving the accessibility of lagging regions to cities, increases the attractiveness of those regions for people and businesses. However, transport is only one of the factors affecting local development and there is no consensus on its net effect on population g...
Motorways, urban growth, and suburbanisation : evidence from three decades of m...
Rocha, Bruno T.; Melo, Patrícia C.; Afonso, Nuno; Silva, João de Abreu ePortugal moved from having less than 200 km of motorways before joining the European Union in 1986 to having the fifth highest motorway density relative to population in the Union in 2017. This paper studies the relationship between the expansion of the Portuguese motorway network between 1981 and 2011 and the growth of population and employment in the 275 mainland municipalities of the country. We address the ...
What drives the allocation of motorways? Evidence from Portugal’s fast-expandin...
Rocha, Bruno T.; Afonso, Nuno; Melo, Patrícia C.; Silva, João de Abreu eThis study investigates the factors that influenced the allocation of motorways across municipalities in mainland Portugal over the period from 1981 to 2011. Our analysis, based on Poisson Pseudo-maximum Likelihood models, suggests that population size and market potential in 1981 are important determinants of motorway density in 2011. Likewise, physical and geographical variables also help explain the spatial ...