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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells ...

Gao, Y; Huang, W; Zhao, Q; Ryti, N; Armstrong, B; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Pascal, M; Urban, A; Zeka, A; Lavigne, E; Madureira, J; Goodman, P; Huber, V

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. METHODS: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related morta...


Ambient fine particulate matter and daily mortality: a comparative analysis of ...

Yu, W; Huang, W; Gasparrini, A; Sera, F; Schneider, A; Breitner, S; Kyselý, J; Schwartz, J; Madureira, J; Gaio, V; Guo, YL; Xu, R; Chen, G; Yang, Z

Background: Model-estimated air pollution exposure products have been widely used in epidemiological studies to assess the health risks of particulate matter with diameters of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5). However, few studies have assessed the disparities in health effects between model-estimated and station-observed PM2.5 exposures. Methods: We collected daily all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality data in 34...


Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time...

He, C; Breitner-Busch, S; Huber, V; Chen, K; Zhang, S; Gasparrini, A; Bell, M; Kan, H; Royé, D; Armstrong, B; Schwartz, J; Sera, F; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

"Objective: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. Population: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths fr...


Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Madaniyazi, L; Armstrong, B; Tobias, A; Mistry, MN; Bell, ML; Urban, A; Kyselý, J; Ryti, N; Cvijanovic, I; Ng, CFS; Roye, D; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Tong, S

Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean ...


Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of cl...

Domingo, NGG; Fiore, AM; Lamarque, J-F; Kinney, PL; Jiang, L; Gasparrini, A; Breitner, S; Lavigne, E; Madureira, J; Masselot, P; Silva, SDNPD

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mort...


Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multi...

Yang, D; Hashizume, M; Tobías, A; Honda, Y; Roye, D; Oh, J; Dang, TN; Kim, Y; Abrutzky, R; Guo, Y; Tong, S; Coelho, MDSZS; Saldiva, PHN; Lavigne, E

Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality a...


Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different...

Chen, K; de Schrijver, E; Sivaraj, S; Sera, F; Scovronick, N; Jiang, L; Roye, D; Lavigne, E; Kyselý, J; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Huber, V; Madureira, J

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; amon...


Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature

Wu, Y; Wen, B; Gasparrini, A; Armstrong, B; Sera, F; Lavigne, E; Li, S; Guo, Y; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled ...


Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Tempera...

Hundessa, S; Huang, W; Zhao, Q; Wu, Y; Wen, B; Alahmad, B; Armstrong, B; Gasparrini, A; Sera, F; Tong, S; Madureira, J; Kyselý, J; Schwartz, J

Background: The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. Objectives: The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. Methods: Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from...


Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability o...

Wen, B; Wu, Y; Guo, Y; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Zanobetti, A; Analitis, A; Zeka, A

Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758...


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