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Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Madaniyazi, L; Armstrong, B; Tobias, A; Mistry, MN; Bell, ML; Urban, A; Kyselý, J; Ryti, N; Cvijanovic, I; Ng, CFS; Roye, D; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Tong, S

Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean ...


Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different...

Chen, K; de Schrijver, E; Sivaraj, S; Sera, F; Scovronick, N; Jiang, L; Roye, D; Lavigne, E; Kyselý, J; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Huber, V; Madureira, J

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; amon...


Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality

Guo, Q; Mistry, MN; Zhou, X; Zhao, G; Kino, K; Wen, B; Cvijanovic, I; Yoshimura, K; Satoh, Y; Kim, Y; Ng, CFS; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Armstrong, B

The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term tr...


Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling tempera...

Mistry, MN; Schneider, R; Masselot, P; Royé, D; Armstrong, B; Kyselý, J; Orru, H; Sera, F; Tong, S; Lavigne, É; Urban, A; Madureira, J; García-León, D

Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health r...


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