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Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

Essl, Franz; García‐Rodríguez, Adrián; Lenzner, Bernd; Alexander, Jake M.; Capinha, César; Gaüzère, Pierre; Guisan, Antoine; Kühn, Ingolf

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change—for example, gradual ‘press’ disturbances such as risi...


Highly diverse and highly successful: invasive Australian acacias have not expe...

Vicente, Sara; Máguas, C.; Richardson, David M.; Trindade, Helena; Wilson, John R. U.; Le Roux, Johannes J.

Background and Aims Invasive species may undergo rapid evolution despite very limited standing genetic diversity. This so-called genetic paradox of biological invasions assumes that an invasive species has experienced (and survived) a genetic bottleneck and then underwent local adaptation in the new range. In this study, we test how often Australian acacias (genus Acacia), one of the world’s worst invasive tree...


Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert‐based assessment

Essl, Franz; Lenzner, Bernd; Bacher, Sven; Bailey, Sarah; Capinha, César; Daehler, Curtis; Dullinger, Stefan; Genovesi, Piero; Hui, Cang

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impact...


Global Actions for Managing Cactus Invasions

Novoa, Ana; Brundu, Giuseppe; Day, Michael D.; Deltoro, Vicente; Essl, Franz; Foxcroft, Llewellyn C.; Fried, Guillaume; Kaplan, Haylee

The family Cactaceae Juss. contains some of the most widespread and damaging invasive alien plant species in the world, with Australia (39 species), South Africa (35) and Spain (24) being the main hotspots of invasion. The Global Cactus Working Group (IOBC GCWG) was launched in 2015 to improve international collaboration and identify key actions that can be taken to limit the impacts caused by cactus invasions ...


A multi-scale modelling framework to guide management of plant invasions in a t...

Martins, João; Richardson, David M.; Henriques, Renato; Marchante, Elizabete; Marchante, Hélia; Alves, Paulo; Gaertner, Mirijam; Honrado, João P.

Background: Attention has recently been drawn to the issue of transboundary invasions, where species introduced and naturalized in one country cross international borders and become problematic in neighbouring countries. Robust modelling frameworks, able to identify the environmental drivers of invasion and forecast the current and future potential distribution of invasive species, are needed to study and manag...


A multi-scale modelling framework to guide management of plant invasions in a t...

Martins, João; Richardson, David M.; Henriques, Renato F.; Marchante, Elizabete; Marchante, Hélia; Alves, Paulo; Gaertner, Mirijam; Honrado, João P.

Background Attention has recently been drawn to the issue of transboundary invasions, where species introduced and naturalized in one country cross international borders and become problematic in neighbouring countries. Robust modelling frameworks, able to identify the environmental drivers of invasion and forecast the current and future potential distribution of invasive species, are needed to study and manage...


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