6 documents found, page 1 of 1
ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Mainland Portugal during Four Fire Seasons
Campos, Cátia; Couto, Flavio Tiago; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Rio, João; Ferreira, Teresa; Salgado, RuiThe study evaluated the ECMWF model ability in forecasting lightning in Portugal during four fire seasons (2019–2022). The evaluation was made based on lightning data from the national lightning detector network, which was aggregated into resolutions of 0.5° and 1° over 3 h periods and analyzed from statistical indices using two contingency tables. The results showed that the model overestimates the lightning o...
ECMWF lightning forecasts evaluation during fire seasons in Portugal
Campos, Cátia; Couto, Flavio Tiago; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Rio, João; Ferreira, Teresa; Salgado, RuiLightning represents only 5-10% of fire causes in Europe and 1-2% in Portugal and correctly predicting its occurrence can help to mitigate large forest fires. In 2016, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) introduced a parametrization for lightning forecast. Therefore, aiming to assess the feasibility of using ECMWF forecasts in the context of natural wildfires, this study analyses the ...
Assessing ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Portugal during fire seasons
Campos, Cátia; Couto, Flavio Tiago; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Rio, João; Ferreira, Teresa; Purificação, Carolina; Salgado, RuiPortugal is one of the European countries that faces significant challenges with wildfires. While lightning-triggered natural fires constitute a minority compared to anthropogenic ones, accurate forecasting of lightning occurrences is crucial for effective prevention. The study assesses the ECMWF model's capability to predict lightning in Portugal over four fire seasons [2019-2022]. Observed lightning data was ...
Avaliação da orientação das fibras em BEDRF através de técnicas não destrutivas
Azevedo, Diogo M.M.; Ribeiro, Filipe; Carvalho, Adriano; Rio, João; Nunes, SandraO presente artigo apresenta alguns resultados iniciais do projecto Betofibra – “Betões de elevado desempenho reforçado com fibras (BEDRF) em soluções inovadoras: concepção, caracterização e controlo de qualidade”. Foram realizados vários ensaios por métodos não destrutivos (NDT) para avaliar a distribuição e orientação das fibras numa laje de BEDRF. Foram aplicadas as técnicas dos ultra-sons, resistividade eléc...
Monthly forecasts of the average wind speed in Portugal
Rio, João; Simões, Teresa; Estanqueiro, AnaForecasts of the monthly anomaly of the average wind speed can provide useful information for energy management and production. Unlike methods which use state-of-the art highly complex dynamic or statistic models, this study presents a methodology based on analogues. This simple method identifies similar weather patterns using past observations to produce a forecast and relies on the fact that the atmosphere ha...
Interannual variability of the average wind speed in Europe
Rio, João; Simões, Teresa; Estanqueiro, AnaInterannual variability of the average wind speed is the main factor for erroneous annual wind park production estimates and therefore can cause serious economic problems to wind park promoters from lower income than expected. In this study, the magnitude of interannual variability of the average wind speed is assessed in Europe, based on data sets from NCEP Reanalysis II. The areas with the highest values of i...