8 documents found, page 1 of 1
The expected time to cross a threshold and its determinants : a simple and flex...
Zsurkis, Gabriel; Nicolau, João; Rodrigues, Paulo M.M.In this paper we introduce a flexible framework to estimate the expected time (ET) an outcome variable takes to cross a threshold conditional on covariates. The proposed method ology makes use of the Markovian property and allows us to infer the impacts that co variates have on the ET an outcome variable takes to revert to a value of interest (for instance, its mean) given a specific starting point. An empirica...
Structural changes in the duration of bull markets and business cycle dynamics
Cruz, João; Nicolau, João; Rodrigues, Paulo M.M.This paper tests for structural changes in the duration of bull regimes in 18 developed and emerging economies’ adjusted market capitalization stock indexes, by using the novel approach of Nicolau (Econ Lett 146:64–67, 2016) as well as two additional new procedures introduced here; and investigates whether the structural changes detected in the bull markets’ duration are connected to the business cycle. We conc...
A reexamination of inflation persistence dynamics in OECD countries : A new app...
Zsurkis, Gabriel; Nicolau, João; Rodrigues, Paulo M.M.This paper introduces a simple and easy to implement procedure to test for changes in persistence. The time-varying parameter that characterizes persistence changes under the alternative hypothesis is approximated by a parsimonious cosine function. The new test procedure is the minimum of a t-statistic, computed from a test regression that considers a set of reasonable values for a frequency term that is used t...
Tourist spending dynamics in the Algarve: a cross-sectional analysis
Serra, Jaime; Correia, Antónia; Rodrigues, Paulo M.M.This paper assesses the determinants of international tourists’ spending in the Algarve from 2007 to 2010. Based on a sample of 15,542 observations a cross-section model was estimated using ordinary least squares. The results reveal that a combination of socio-demographic, behavioural and motivation variables explain the spending patterns of international tourists in the Algarve. Analysis of the data indicates ...
A comparative analysis of tourism destination demand in Portugal
Serra, Jaime; Correia, Antónia; Rodrigues, Paulo M.M.Tourism has experienced different levels of development in the different regions of Portugal.To frame this development, in this paper dynamic panel data models were estimated with the objective of explaining the evolution of international overnight stays in each region.Secondary data from 2000 to 2011 was used.The analysis includes the main tourism source markets for Portugal, such as the United Kingdom, German...
Ranking Algarve Tourists Preferences: An Ordered Probit Approach
Serra, Jaime; Correia, Antónia; Rodrigues, Paulo M.M.The starting point for tourism development is tourists’ preferences. Preferences are the cognitive motivations that drive tourists to a certain destination. There are a plethora of published studies in the field of tourist motivations, such as Dann (1977); Crompton (1979); Witt and Wright (1992); Pearce and Lee (2005) to name a few, who contributed to the understanding of this area of research. However, researc...
From Motivations to Yield Paths of Tourism Development: The Case of the Algarve
Serra, Jaime; Correia, Antónia; Rodrigues, Paulo M.M.This paper develops new measurements of tourist yield in the context of the Algarve, which is a sun and sand destination where tourism demand persistently grows, in spite of the signs of destination maturity. This growth contradicts the essence of maturity and drove this research, which attempts to identify the critical preferences which are able to improve destination positioning. According to Pine and Gilmore...
The behaviour of seasonal unit root tests under neglected local drifts
Rodrigues, Paulo M.M.This paper analyses the limit distributions of the seasonal unit root test procedures proposed by Dickey, Hasza and Fuller (1984) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990), when local trends at different frequencies are present in data generation processes, but ignored in the test regressions used. The findings presented explicitly show that neglected deterministic trends have negative effects on the distrib...