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Tax reforms and network effects

This paper investigates the effects of a tax reform that eliminates tax rate heterogeneity and cumulative taxation using a general equilibrium model calibrated to Brazil that includes multiple sectors with market power. Industries are connected through input-output linkages and changes in tax costs are not confined within industries. The tax reform shocks propagate through the production network, which may ampl...

Tributos, estagnação e desigualdade: um dos motivos do baixo crescimento e da p...

Machine learning and oil price point and density forecasting

The purpose of this paper is to explore machine learning techniques to forecast the oil price. In the era of big data, we investigate whether new automated tools can improve over traditional approaches in terms of forecast accuracy. Oil price point and density forecasts are built from 22 methods, including regression trees (random forest, quantile regression forest, xgboost), regularization procedures (elastic ...

Efeitos permanentes da crise

Trade, structural transformation and productivity growth in China

This paper studies the recent experience of the Chinese economy from the perspective of a model with structural transformation and trade lib- eralization. The final objective is to quantify the contributions of the main drivers of Chinese experience, namely: the high investment rate, the strong productivity growth in each sector, the reallocation of labor across sectors and public sector expenditures. We constr...

Populismo e paralisia

The Long-Run Impact of Social Security Reform in Brazil

In most countries, the rules governing public and private pension systems are different, and so are hiring procedures, and job contracts. The tenures of government employees are longer and their wages, in general, higher. In this sense, social security reforms will affect not only the decision to leave the labor force, but also the choice of which sector to work. In this article, we study the impact of social s...

Populismo estrutural

O efeito amplificador dos bens e serviços intermediários sobre a cadeia produti...

Neste artigo, construímos um modelo de equilíbrio geral com 46 setores de bens finais e insumos intermediários, utilizando dados da Social Economic Accounts de 2014. O modelo foi calibrado para o Brasil e foram realizadas várias simulações contrafactuais com o objetivo de identificar os setores com maior impacto potencial nos demais setores e na produtividade agregada. Os resultados indicam que existe uma clara...

Flexibilizar o Teto?

A fixação do teto de gastos não foi a política desejada, mas sim a possível