5 documents found, page 1 of 1
A Case Study of the Possible Meteorological Causes of Unexpected Fire Behavior ...
Couto, Flavio Tiago; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Campos, Cátia; Purificação, Carolina; Andrade, Nuno; López-Vega, Juan M.; Lacroix, MatthieuThis study provides insights into large fires in the Pantanal by analyzing the atmospheric conditions that influenced the rapid fire evolution between 13 and 14 November 2023, when fire fronts spread rapidly, leading to critical situations for firefighters. The observation-based analysis helped us to identify some characteristics of the fire’s evolution and the meteorological conditions in the region. Furthermo...
ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Mainland Portugal during Four Fire Seasons
Campos, Cátia; Couto, Flavio Tiago; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Rio, João; Ferreira, Teresa; Salgado, RuiThe study evaluated the ECMWF model ability in forecasting lightning in Portugal during four fire seasons (2019–2022). The evaluation was made based on lightning data from the national lightning detector network, which was aggregated into resolutions of 0.5° and 1° over 3 h periods and analyzed from statistical indices using two contingency tables. The results showed that the model overestimates the lightning o...
ECMWF lightning forecasts evaluation during fire seasons in Portugal
Campos, Cátia; Couto, Flavio Tiago; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Rio, João; Ferreira, Teresa; Salgado, RuiLightning represents only 5-10% of fire causes in Europe and 1-2% in Portugal and correctly predicting its occurrence can help to mitigate large forest fires. In 2016, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) introduced a parametrization for lightning forecast. Therefore, aiming to assess the feasibility of using ECMWF forecasts in the context of natural wildfires, this study analyses the ...
Towards a better understanding of pyroconvective clouds using Meso-NH/ForeFire ...
Couto, Flavio Tiago; Campos, Cátia; Filippi, Jean-Baptiste; Baggio, Roberta; Purificação, Carolina; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Salgado, RuiIn 2017, Portugal was affected by several mega-fire episodes, which led the convective clouds formation, i.e., pyroCumulus (pyroCu) or pyroCumulonimbus (pyroCb). The pyroCb plays a crucial role in the fire front evolution through feedback processes between the atmosphere and the fire, including increased burn and spread rates by surface wind speed and direction variations. In order to investigate the pyro-conve...
Assessing ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Portugal during fire seasons
Campos, Cátia; Couto, Flavio Tiago; Santos, Filippe L. M.; Rio, João; Ferreira, Teresa; Purificação, Carolina; Salgado, RuiPortugal is one of the European countries that faces significant challenges with wildfires. While lightning-triggered natural fires constitute a minority compared to anthropogenic ones, accurate forecasting of lightning occurrences is crucial for effective prevention. The study assesses the ECMWF model's capability to predict lightning in Portugal over four fire seasons [2019-2022]. Observed lightning data was ...