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Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information

Pfleiderer, Peter; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Kropf, Chahan M.; Lamboll, Robin D.; Lejeune, Quentin; Lourenço, Tiago Capela; Maussion, Fabien

Escalating impacts of climate change underscore the risks posed by crossing potentially irreversible Earth and socioecological system thresholds and adaptation limits. However, limitations in the provision of actionable climate information may hinder an anticipatory response. Here we suggest a reversal of the traditional impact chain methodology as an end-user focused approach linking specific climate risk thre...


Impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on temperature-related mortality

Orlov, Anton; De Hertog, Steven J.; Havermann, Felix; Guo, Suqi; Manola, Iris; Lejeune, Quentin; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Thiery, Wim

Background: Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) can substantially affect climate through biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. Here, we examine the future temperature-mortality impact for two contrasting LULCC scenarios in a background climate of low greenhouse gas concentrations. The first LULCC scenario implies a globally sustainable land use and socioeconomic development (sustainability). In the seco...


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