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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells ...

Gao, Y; Huang, W; Zhao, Q; Ryti, N; Armstrong, B; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Pascal, M; Urban, A; Zeka, A; Lavigne, E; Madureira, J; Goodman, P; Huber, V

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. METHODS: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related morta...


Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time...

He, C; Breitner-Busch, S; Huber, V; Chen, K; Zhang, S; Gasparrini, A; Bell, M; Kan, H; Royé, D; Armstrong, B; Schwartz, J; Sera, F; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

"Objective: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. Population: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths fr...


Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Madaniyazi, L; Armstrong, B; Tobias, A; Mistry, MN; Bell, ML; Urban, A; Kyselý, J; Ryti, N; Cvijanovic, I; Ng, CFS; Roye, D; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Tong, S

Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean ...


Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of cl...

Domingo, NGG; Fiore, AM; Lamarque, J-F; Kinney, PL; Jiang, L; Gasparrini, A; Breitner, S; Lavigne, E; Madureira, J; Masselot, P; Silva, SDNPD

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mort...


Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multi...

Yang, D; Hashizume, M; Tobías, A; Honda, Y; Roye, D; Oh, J; Dang, TN; Kim, Y; Abrutzky, R; Guo, Y; Tong, S; Coelho, MDSZS; Saldiva, PHN; Lavigne, E

Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality a...


Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature

Wu, Y; Wen, B; Gasparrini, A; Armstrong, B; Sera, F; Lavigne, E; Li, S; Guo, Y; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM

Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled ...


Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Tempera...

Hundessa, S; Huang, W; Zhao, Q; Wu, Y; Wen, B; Alahmad, B; Armstrong, B; Gasparrini, A; Sera, F; Tong, S; Madureira, J; Kyselý, J; Schwartz, J

Background: The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. Objectives: The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. Methods: Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from...


Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability o...

Wen, B; Wu, Y; Guo, Y; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Zanobetti, A; Analitis, A; Zeka, A

Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758...


Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality

Guo, Q; Mistry, MN; Zhou, X; Zhao, G; Kino, K; Wen, B; Cvijanovic, I; Yoshimura, K; Satoh, Y; Kim, Y; Ng, CFS; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Armstrong, B

The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term tr...


Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries

Stafoggia, M; Michelozzi, P; Schneider, A; Armstrong, B; Scortichini, M; Rai, M; Achilleos, S; Alahmad, B; Analitis, A; Åström, C; Bell, ML; Calleja, N

Background The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. Objectives To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitr...


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