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Okun's Law across time and frequencies

Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Soares, M. J.

We present the first assessment of U.S. Okun's Law across time and frequencies. We use a set of continuous wavelet tools that allows for estimating Okun's coefficient and the lead/lag of output over unemployment at each moment and for each cyclical frequency. We find similar results for the gaps and the first differences specifications at business cycles frequencies, but not at lower frequencies. Okun's coeffic...


Okun’s law across time and frequencies

Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Soares, Maria Joana

We present the first assessment of U.S. Okun’s Law across time and frequencies, with a set of continuous wavelet tools that allows for estimating Okun’s coefficient and the lead/lag of output over unemployment at each moment of time for each cyclical frequency. We find similar results for the gaps and the first differences specifications at business cycles frequencies, but not at medium and long run cycles. Oku...


Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain

Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Soares, M. J.

We present the first assessment of U.S. monetary policy across time and frequencies within the Taylor Rule framework. We derive a novel wavelet tool - the partial wavelet gain - to estimate a parametric equation relating the federal funds rate to inflation and the output gap. We detect a gradual shift of the focus of policy from short cycles to intermediate cycles at the beginning of the Great Moderation, follo...


Estimating the Taylor Rule in the Time-Frequency Domain

Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Soares, M. J.

We present the first assessment of U.S.monetary policy across time and frequencies within the Taylor Rule framework. We derive a novel wavelet tool - the partial wavelet gain - to estimate a parametric equation relating the federal funds rate to infation and the output gap. We detect a gradual shift of the focus of policy from short cycles to intermediate cycles at the beginning of the Great Moderation,followed...


Estimating the Taylor Rule in the time-frequency domain

Conraria, Luís Aguiar; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Soares, M. J.

We assess U.S. monetary policy across time and frequencies in the framework of the Taylor Rule (TR). First, we portray the deviations between policy interest rates and the TR-prescribed rates with a set of continuous wavelet tools, comprising the coherency, phase-diference and gain. Then, using their multivariate counterparts, including a multivariate generalization of the wavelet gain, we estimate the TR coeff...


A Economia Portuguesa na União Europeia: 1986-2010

Alexandre, Fernando; Bação, Pedro; Lains, Pedro; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Portela, Miguel; Simões, Marta


Introdução: a economia portuguesa entre duas intervenções do FMI

Alexandre, Fernando; Bação, Pedro; Lains, Pedro; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Simões, Marta


Convergence of the economic sentiment cycles in the Eurozone : a time-frequency...

Conraria, Luís Aguiar; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Soares, M. J.

In this article, wavelet tools and economic sentiment indicators are used to study the similarity and synchronization of economic cycles in the eurozone. The time-varying and frequency-varying patterns of business cycles synchronization are assessed and the impact of the creation of the European monetary union (EMU) in 1999 is tested. Among several results, it is found that: the EMU is associated with a signific...


The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies

Conraria, Luís Aguiar; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Soares, M. J.

We assess the relation between the yield curve and the macroeconomy in the U.S. between 1961 and 2011. We add to the standard parametric macro-finance models, uncovering evidence simultaneously on the time and frequency domains. We model the shape of the yield curve by latent factors corresponding to its level, slope and curvature. The macroeconomic variables measure real activity, inflation and monetary policy...


Convergence of economic sentiment cycles in the euro area : a time-frequency an...

Conraria, Luís Aguiar; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Soares, M. J.

We use wavelet tools and Economic Sentiment Indicators to study the similarity and synchronization of economic cycles in the Euro Area. We assess the time-varying and frequency-varying pattern of business cycles synchronization in the Area and test the impact of the creation of the Economic and Monetary Union in 1999. Among several results, we find that (a) EMU is associated with a significant increase in the s...


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