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Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time...

He, Cheng; Breitner-Busch, Susanne; Huber, Veronika; Chen, Kai; Zhang, Siqi; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bell, Michelle; Kan, Haidong; Royé, Dominic

Objective: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. Population: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths fro...


Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A mult...

Yang, Daewon; Hashizume, Masahiro; Tobías, Aurelio; Honda, Yasushi; Roye, Dominic; Oh, Jaemin; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Kim, Yoonhee; Abrutzky, Rosana

Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality a...


Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature

Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Sera, Francesco; Lavigne, Eric; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš

Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled ...


Impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on temperature-related mortality

Orlov, Anton; De Hertog, Steven J.; Havermann, Felix; Guo, Suqi; Manola, Iris; Lejeune, Quentin; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Thiery, Wim

Background: Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) can substantially affect climate through biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. Here, we examine the future temperature-mortality impact for two contrasting LULCC scenarios in a background climate of low greenhouse gas concentrations. The first LULCC scenario implies a globally sustainable land use and socioeconomic development (sustainability). In the seco...


Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis

Alahmad, Barrak; Khraishah, Haitham; Kamineni, Meghana; Royé, Dominic; Papatheodorou, Stefania I.; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Guo, Yuming; Lavigne, Eric

Background: Extreme temperatures contribute significantly to global mortality. While previous studies on temperature and stroke-specific outcomes presented conflicting results, these studies were predominantly limited to single-city or single-country analyses. Their findings are difficult to synthesize due to variations in methodologies and exposure definitions. Methods: Within the Multi-Country Multi-City Netw...


Temporal variations in the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on cardi...

Schwarz, Maximilian; Peters, Annette; Stafoggia, Massimo; de'Donato, Francesca; Sera, Francesco; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yuming; Honda, Yasushi

Background: Ambient air pollution, including particulate matter (such as PM10 and PM2·5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), has been linked to increases in mortality. Whether populations' vulnerability to these pollutants has changed over time is unclear, and studies on this topic do not include multicountry analysis. We evaluated whether changes in exposure to air pollutants were associated with changes in mortality ...


Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Madaniyazi, Lina; Armstrong, Ben; Tobias, Aurelio; Mistry, Malcolm N.; Bell, Michelle L.; Urban, Aleš; Kyselý, Jan; Ryti, Niilo; Cvijanovic, Ivana

Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean ...


All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone...

Chen, Gongbo; Guo, Yuming; Yue, Xu; Xu, Rongbin; Yu,Wenhua; Ye, Tingting; Tong, Shilu; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bell,Michelle L.; Armstrong, Ben

Background: Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O3 exposure with mortality globally. Methods: We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis. From the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, data on daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory dea...


The Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network: An international r...

Gasparrini, Antonio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Tobias, Aurelio; behalf of the MCC Collaborative Research Network

Research on the health risks of environmental factors and climate change requires epidemiological evidence on associated health risks at a global scale. Multi-center studies offer an excellent framework for this purpose, but they present various methodological and logistical problems. This contribution illustrates the experience of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, an international co...


Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells ...

Gao, Yuan; Huang, Wenzhong; Zhao, Qi; Ryti, Niilo; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Pascal, Mathilde; Urban, Aleš; Zeka, Ariana

Background: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. Methods: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related morta...


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