An exploratory analysis was performed, trends of both delays were studied, and 36 months forecasts were generated. We used the permutation test to test differences between groups and the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) method and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for forecasting for both Health and Patient delays. We used data from notified PTB cases in mainland Portugal...
Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS). In 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated 10.0 million people developed TB and 1.3 million deaths (range, 1.2–1.4 million) among HIV-negative people with an additional 300 000 deaths from TB (range, 266 000–335 000) among HIVpositive people. Studies that understand the socio...
Although the advantages of R are well-known (free, open source, continually updated by experts), it is not the first choice among college students, especially those not majoring in mathematics or statistics. A problem that appears when teaching R is that once the great potential of the software is understood, the temptation is to focus immediately on more advanced analysis, which adds frustration for beginning ...
Understanding what characterizes patients who suffer great delays in diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis is of great importance when establishing screening strategies to better control TB. Greater delays in diagnosis imply a higher chance for susceptible individuals to become infected by a bacilliferous patient. A Structured Additive Regression model is attempted in this study in order to potentially contribute...
SETTING: Tuberculosis (TB) is a global public health concern. Surveillance programs present invaluable epidemiological information regarding its temporal evolution, particularly for pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), the most common form of TB and the one that presents the biggest challenge in Public Health. OBJECTIVES: To characterize, model and predict PTB monthly incidence rates in Portugal, and disaggregated by ...
Introduction and objectives: Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is the most common form of Tuberculosis and highly associated with airborne transmission. Time series analysis is a methodology highly valuable in the assessment of health trends and control program performance. The present study applies Dynamic Regression models in order to potentially contribute to a better characterization of the PTB monthly incidence...
In this work, Cox's proportional hazards model with penalized spline functions for time-varying covariate effects are presented in order to model the time between the onset of the first symptoms and the diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) in Portugal. Using this approach revealed a better fitting of the model to the data than Cox's classical model. Results showed that an earlier diagnosis tends to be asso...
The increasing relevance of spatiotemporal epidemiology, enhanced by a greater availability of geographical information and the growing importance of knowing where, when and how the health phenomena occurred in a spatiotemporal context, promotes more scientifically robust and effective early intervention. The identification of critical areas, either in terms of their higher incidence of a disease, or their inte...
Our main purpose is to achieve a better understanding of the several factors that are explicitly related with the time between the onset of the first symptoms and the diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (“delay” in diagnosis) and its possible role on the level of the disease incidence. The length of such delay under scope is extremely important in Tuberculosis dissemination, since the baciliferous patient circu...
Introduction: Malnutrition and infections by intestinal parasites such as Giardia duodenalis coexist in the same geographical regions, reaching the highest prevalence in developing countries. The cycle of malnutrition and infection implies that both conditions can aggravate each other and compromise the growth and development of children with special relevance for under-five. The aim of this study was to invest...