Document details

Parametric study of the analog ensembles algorithm with clustering methods for hindcasting with multistations

Author(s): Araújo, Leonardo Oliveira ; Balsa, Carlos ; Rodrigues, Carlos Veiga ; Rufino, José

Date: 2021

Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/10198/24627

Origin: Biblioteca Digital da UPB

Subject(s): Analog ensembles; Clustering; Time series; Meteorological data; Hindcasting


Description

Weather prediction for locations without or scarce meteorological data available can be attempted by taking meteorological datasets from nearby stations. This hindcasting problem can be successfully solved using the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) method. This paper presents a parametric analysis of the AnEn method, and two variations (based on K-means and fuzzy C-means clustering methods), when used to search for analog ensembles in a historical dataset. The study allowed to identify the parameter combinations that yield the best prediction accuracy, improving 13% on the systematic error and 5% on the random error of the previous results obtained with the same dataset. In addition, important performance gains were achieved at the computational level.

Document Type Conference paper
Language English
Contributor(s) Biblioteca Digital da UPB
CC Licence
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