Autor(es):
Reboita, Michelle Simões ; Reale, Marco ; da Rocha, Rosmeri P. ; Giorgi, Filippo ; Giuliani, Graziano ; Coppola, Erika ; Nino, Rosa Beatriz Luna ; Llopart, Marta [UNESP] ; Torres, Jose Abraham ; Cavazos, Tereza
Data: 2020
Identificador Persistente: http://hdl.handle.net/11449/201133
Origem: Oasisbr
Assunto(s): CORDEX-CORE; Cyclone tracking scheme; Cyclones; Extratropical southern hemisphere; Precipitation; RegCM4; CORDEX-CORE; CORDEX-CORE; Cyclone tracking scheme; Cyclone tracking scheme; Cyclones; Cyclones; Extratropical southern hemisphere; Extratropical southern hemisphere; Precipitation; Precipitation; RegCM4; RegCM4
Descrição
Made available in DSpace on 2020-12-12T02:24:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2020-01-01
Changes in the characteristics of austral winter (June–July–August) synoptic activity in three domains (Africa, Australia and South America) of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere projected with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) are presented. The model is nested in three global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The model grid spacing is 25 km and the simulations cover the period 1970–2100. Synoptic activity is analyzed using both Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches. The Eulerian analysis shows an increase of the synoptic activity south of 40° S in the RegCM4 and GCMs ensembles for the future (2080–2099) compared to the present (1995–2014), but this signal does not necessarily indicate an increase in the cyclone frequency since it includes cyclonic and anticyclonic features. The Lagrangian analysis, however, indicates a decrease in the frequency of cyclones, with a positive tendency towards stronger systems, although the latter is not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. Lifetime, traveled distance and mean speed of the cyclones do not present statistically significant changes in the future climate. On the other hand, a significant increase in both intensity and extension of areas affected by precipitation associated with cyclones is found. As a consequence, there is a statistically significant trend of individual cyclones to produce more rainfall in the future.
Federal University of Itajubá UNIFEI
Earth System Physics ESP The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physiscs
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale OGS
Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo USP
Department of Physical Oceanography Ensenada Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education CICESE
Universidade Estadual Paulista UNESP
Centro de Meteorologia de Bauru IPMet
Universidade Estadual Paulista UNESP
