Autor(es):
Muylaert, Renata L. [UNESP] ; Sabino-Santos, Gilberto ; Prist, Paula R. ; Oshima, Júlia E.F. [UNESP] ; Niebuhr, Bernardo Brandão [UNESP] ; Sobral-Souza, Thadeu ; De Oliveira, Stefan Vilges ; Bovendorp, Ricardo Siqueira ; Marshall, Jonathan C. ; Hayman, David T.S. ; Ribeiro, Milton Cezar [UNESP]
Data: 2020
Identificador Persistente: http://hdl.handle.net/11449/201301
Origem: Oasisbr
Assunto(s): Approximate Bayesian inference; Emerging diseases; Integrated nested Laplace approximations; Land use change; Latent Gaussian models; Polygon-based analysis; Public health; Zero inflation; Approximate Bayesian inference; Approximate Bayesian inference; Emerging diseases; Emerging diseases; Integrated nested Laplace approximations; Integrated nested Laplace approximations; Land use change; Land use change; Latent Gaussian models; Latent Gaussian models; Polygon-based analysis; Polygon-based analysis; Public health; Public health; Zero inflation; Zero inflation
Descrição
Made available in DSpace on 2020-12-12T02:29:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2019-10-31
Background: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change—especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields—can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease.
Department of Ecology Institute of Biosciences São Paulo State University (UNESP)
Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory Hopkirk Research Institute Massey University, Private Bag 11-222
Center for Virology Research Ribeirão Preto Medical School University of São Paulo, Av. Bandeirantes 3900
Vitalant Research Institute, 270 Masonic Avenue
Department of Laboratory Medicine University of California, 270 Masonic Avenue
Department of Ecology Biosciences Institute University of São Paulo
Centro Nacional de Pesquisa e Conservacao de Mamiferos Carnivoros (CENAP) Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação (ICMBio) Estrada Municipal Hisaichi Takebayashi, 8600-Bairro da Usina
Instituto Pró-Carnívoros, Av. Horácio Neto 1030
Department of Botany and Ecology Federal University of Mato Grosso (UFMT)
Departamento de Saúde Coletiva Faculdade de Medicina Universidade Federal de Uberlândia Campus Umuarama, Avenida Pará, 1720
Departamento de Ciências Biológicas Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz
Department of Ecology Institute of Biosciences São Paulo State University (UNESP)
