Publicação
Empirical study on the impact of intermediate target of monetary policy on real estate market prices in China
| Resumo: | In recent years, China's real estate market prices have been rising continuously, with the 9,310.28 yuan/m2 of average price of commercial housing and 9,287 yuan/m2 of residential housing by 2019. The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry. Thus, the Chinese government began to consider whether the intermediary target of monetary policy has an impact on real estate prices. Firstly, this paper reviews and summarizes the literature and related theories on the selection of the intermediary target of monetary policy and the influence of money supply and interest rate on real estate prices. Secondly, based on the review of relevant literature, this paper makes a theoretical analysis and draws a preliminary conclusion: money supply has a positive impact on real estate prices, while interest rates have a negative impact on real estate prices. Thirdly, this study sorts out the actual data of money supply, interest rates and real estate prices of 1996-2019 China and analyzes them in the descriptive perspective. Next, this study chooses the average price of national commercial housing market, M1, M2 and the 30-day weighted average interest rate of interbank lending as the empirical research variables, and carries out processing on these data. Then, it quantifies the impact of monetary policy intermediary target on real estate prices in China. According to the results, both money supply and interest rates, as the intermediary target of monetary policy, will have a long-term effect on real estate prices. Finally, this study put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Chen Yitong |
| Assunto: | Money supply Interest rates Real estate prices Monetary policy Oferta monetária Taxa de juro Preços imobiliários Política monetária |
| Ano: | 2021 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | ISCTE |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório ISCTE |
| Resumo: | In recent years, China's real estate market prices have been rising continuously, with the 9,310.28 yuan/m2 of average price of commercial housing and 9,287 yuan/m2 of residential housing by 2019. The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry. Thus, the Chinese government began to consider whether the intermediary target of monetary policy has an impact on real estate prices. Firstly, this paper reviews and summarizes the literature and related theories on the selection of the intermediary target of monetary policy and the influence of money supply and interest rate on real estate prices. Secondly, based on the review of relevant literature, this paper makes a theoretical analysis and draws a preliminary conclusion: money supply has a positive impact on real estate prices, while interest rates have a negative impact on real estate prices. Thirdly, this study sorts out the actual data of money supply, interest rates and real estate prices of 1996-2019 China and analyzes them in the descriptive perspective. Next, this study chooses the average price of national commercial housing market, M1, M2 and the 30-day weighted average interest rate of interbank lending as the empirical research variables, and carries out processing on these data. Then, it quantifies the impact of monetary policy intermediary target on real estate prices in China. According to the results, both money supply and interest rates, as the intermediary target of monetary policy, will have a long-term effect on real estate prices. Finally, this study put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. |
|---|