Publicação
Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources
| Resumo: | In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Omira, Rachid |
| Outros Autores: | Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana; Matias, Luís |
| Assunto: | Tsunami Probabilistic approach NE Atlantic |
| Ano: | 2015 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso restrito |
| Instituição associada: | Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa |
| _version_ | 1866887515454046208 |
|---|---|
| author | Omira, Rachid |
| author2 | Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana Matias, Luís |
| author2_role | author author |
| author_facet | Omira, Rachid Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana Matias, Luís |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | RCIPL |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Omira, Rachid\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0002-6198-7588\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0002-6381-703X\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Matias, Luís\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | RCIPL |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Omira, Rachid Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana Matias, Luís |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2015-03-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2016-02-23T16:42:39Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2016-02-23T16:42:39Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | Tsunami Probabilistic approach NE Atlantic |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | RCIPL |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Omira, Rachid Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana Matias, Luís |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2015-03-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2016-02-23T16:42:39Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2016-02-23T16:42:39Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/5719 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Springer Basel AG |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Tsunami Probabilistic approach NE Atlantic |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| description | In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years. |
| dirty | 0 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | restrictedAccess |
| format | article |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://repositorio.ipl.pt/bitstreams/f80c99d3-fd23-471e-9e01-4a14a3773c1c/download |
| id | ripl_7dfdc4c3bcce70c81ff05c5d8a4c80c0 |
| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/5719 |
| instacron_str | ipl |
| institution | Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa |
| instname_str | Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | ripl |
| network_name_str | Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:repositorio.ipl.pt:10400.21/5719 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:ipl |
| person_str_mv | Omira, Rachid Omira, Rachid https://www.ciencia-id.pt/C116-66FF-BB9B C116-66FF-BB9B http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6198-7588 0000-0002-6198-7588 Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana https://www.ciencia-id.pt/CF12-1EE3-F49B CF12-1EE3-F49B http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6381-703X 0000-0002-6381-703X Matias, Luís |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Springer Basel AG |
| reponame_str | Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa |
| repository_id_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:ripl |
| service_str_mv | urn:repositoryAcronym:ripl |
| spelling | engSpringer Basel AGpt_PTIn this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.application/pdfpt_PTProbabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sourcesPersonalOmira, RachidDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/c57e1a9c-7628-49a3-98f9-4465f1ba5e5aDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/c57e1a9c-7628-49a3-98f9-4465f1ba5e5aOmiraRachidCiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.ptC116-66FF-BB9BORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0002-6198-7588Researcher IDhttps://www.researcherid.comN-2533-2013Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com34971883700PersonalBaptista, Maria Ana Carvalho VianaDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/a01dd185-70d9-4a8e-9c8c-1418e555ef00DSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/a01dd185-70d9-4a8e-9c8c-1418e555ef00de Carvalho Viana BaptistaMARIA ANACiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.ptCF12-1EE3-F49BORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0002-6381-703XScopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.comhttps://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=7102934075Matias, LuísHostingInstitutionOrganizationalRCIPLe-mailmailto:rcaap@sp.ipl.ptrcaap@sp.ipl.ptISSNIsPartOf0033-4553ISSNIsPartOf1420-9136DOIIsPartOf10.1007/s00024-014-0949-x2016-02-23T16:42:39Z2015-032015-03-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/5719http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ecrestricted accessTsunamiProbabilistic approachNE Atlantic13894042 bytesliteraturehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ecapplication/pdffulltexthttps://repositorio.ipl.pt/bitstreams/f80c99d3-fd23-471e-9e01-4a14a3773c1c/download1723-4901920 |
| spellingShingle | Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources Omira, Rachid Tsunami Probabilistic approach NE Atlantic |
| status | SINGLETON |
| subject.fl_str_mv | Tsunami Probabilistic approach NE Atlantic |
| title | Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources |
| title_full | Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources |
| title_short | Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources |
| title_sort | Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources |
| topic | Tsunami Probabilistic approach NE Atlantic |
| topic_facet | Tsunami Probabilistic approach NE Atlantic |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/5719 |
| visible | 1 |